When we talk about Canada's resource story, naturally we focus on Alberta's abundance of energy commodities and the export infrastructure planned along the coast of British Columbia. In other words, much of our attention is necessarily fixated on Western Canada.
But it's important not to overlook what's happening on Canada's Atlantic coast.
While the US currently absorbs the vast majority of Canada's energy exports, the glut of production resulting from prolific shale plays means Canada must diversify its export markets to ensure continued demand at economic prices.
Of course, long-term contracts with importers in fast-growing Asian emerging markets are the big prize for North American energy producers, particularly when considering the significant spread between natural gas prices in the US and Canada and those overseas.
Canada's west coast should be the point of departure for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil destined for Asia. But given the ongoing political clown show in British Columbia, Alberta-based producers are starting to look east as well.
According to the Financial Post (FP), earlier this week Canadian oil major Suncor Energy Inc (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU) transported 700,000 barrels of Western Canada Select (WCS) crude by rail to a port near Montreal. From there, it will be shipped to Italy, via the Saint Lawrence River, which ultimately connects with the Atlantic Ocean. The company told FP that this is its first waterborne shipment of WCS from the east coast.
And next month, Enbridge Inc (TSX: ENB, NYSE: ENB) is expect to complete the reversal of its Line 9B pipeline, bringing up to 300,000 more barrels a day to the Saint Lawrence. The company notes that the pipeline originally flowed eastward, but was reversed in 1998 thanks to an influx of cheap foreign oil.
But times have changed.
Enbridge touts the reversal, which is part of its Eastern Canadian Refinery Access Initiative, as a critical step toward ensuring the future of Quebec's refining industry. The province's two major refineries--one is owned by Suncor, the other by Valero Energy Corp (NYSE: VLO)--account for 20 percent of Canadian capacity, but 90 percent of the crude they currently process is higher-priced oil sourced from overseas.
WCS tends to trade at a persistent discount to other oil benchmarks, such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is the North American benchmark, and Brent North Sea crude, which is the global benchmark.
That's because WCS, which is extracted from Canada's oil sands, is a heavier grade of crude, so it's costlier to refine. It also has to travel a great distance to reach key refineries in the US, so transportation expenses also factor into the differential.
However, the differentials between WCS and the two aforementioned benchmarks have narrowed considerably as of late, owing to a decrease in transportation bottlenecks and the depreciation in the Canadian dollar, among other factors.
As such, WCS offers potentially greater margins than foreign crude for Canada's domestic refiners. For instance, WCS recently traded near USD76.90, about USD18.26 below the price of Brent, or a discount of about 19.2 percent.
The FP quoted Simon Jacques, an energy sector shipping consultant, as saying that it costs about USD12 per barrel to ship crude by rail from Alberta to Montreal. Based on recent prices, that leaves a substantial $6.26 spread between the price of WCS and Brent from the standpoint of domestic refiners, before factoring in any transportation costs for the latter.
And shipping overseas adds another USD3.50 per barrel, for a remaining discount of USD2.76 per barrel, from the perspective of importers based in Europe.
According to Jacques, the economics offered by WCS could mean that, "The Saint Lawrence River is going to become a little Mississippi River." Indeed, both Enbridge and TransCanada Corp (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) have proposed to build new pipelines to transport WCS to Canada's Atlantic coast.
Of course, British Columbia's proximity to Alberta and access to Asia means that it should ultimately handle the vast majority of energy exports headed overseas. But given the extent to which provincial leadership has taken this situation for granted, it's nice to have an alternative outlet should their recalcitrance continue.
This article originally appeared in the Maple Leaf Memo column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Maple Leaf Memo by email.
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