While the world will continue to utilize fossil fuels for decades to come, I believe that solar power is destined to ultimately become our most important energy source. It is already the fastest-growing one, with global solar power consumption increasing 11-fold in just the past five years.
However, two factors prevent solar from growing even faster. The first is that solar, like wind, is intermittent power. In order to make use of solar power when the sun isn't shining, we have to be able to store the sun's energy. There are a few ways of doing this, but none are especially cost effective.
A solar photovoltaic (PV) system for a home may use deep cycle batteries that are charged during periods of high sunlight and discharged at night. These can be lead acid batteries like those used for marine vessels, and they are designed to be regularly deeply discharged (unlike a car battery). But these batteries tend to be costly, and they must be replaced several times during the useful life of a typical solar PV system.
Solar power storage can also be accomplished at a utility scale. Concentrating solar power (CSP) systems use lenses or mirrors to concentrate the sun's rays, similar to a magnifying glass. The concentrated rays are then used to produce heat, which may be used to generate steam that can then be passed through a turbine to produce electricity. Alternatively the heat may be used to produce molten salt, which retains heat when the sun doesn't shine and can enable CSP plants to run 24 hours a day.
CSP output has grown nearly 50% annually, on average, over the past five years. Spain has dominated this technology in recent years, but the US has been the site of two large CSP plants brought online in the last two years. The 250 megawatt (MW) Solana plant completed in Arizona in 2013 by Abengoa Solar (NASDAQ: ABGB) was the world's largest parabolic trough plant when it was built, and was the first US CSP plant with thermal solar energy storage -- designed to run for six hours without direct sunlight.
In early 2014, the 377 MW Ivanpah plant started up in California and became the largest operating solar thermal electric facility of any type in the world. This plant has received some unwanted publicity recently because of the number of birds that are being killed when flying through the concentrated beams of solar energy. (A recent report from the US Fish and Wildlife Service called the plant a "megatrap" and made recommendations on how to make CSP safer for birds.)
Spanish companies lead the CSP industry with ownership interests in almost three-quarters of the CSP capacity deployed around the world. As of early 2013, Abengoa Solar had the world's largest portfolio of plants in operation or under construction. Behind Abengoa, the top CSP companies were the Spanish companies Acciona (OTC: ACXIF), ACS Cobra (Madrid: ACS), and Torresol Energy; and the US companies Brightsource and Solar Reserve.
The global installed capacity of CSP in 2013 was 3.4 GW. The US Department of Energy estimates the current levelized cost of producing CSP at $0.13 per kilowatt hour (kWh) (versus $0.112/kWh for solar PV), but expects that cost to fall to $0.06/kWh by 2020.
The solar PV market is much larger than the CSP one, with a global installed capacity of 139 GW last year. Solar PV uses materials such as various types of silicon or cadmium telluride that are capable of producing electricity when struck by solar radiation. Most commercial solar PV cells convert solar radiation into electricity at efficiencies ranging from 10% to 15%.
As a result of generous government incentives, Germany has led the world in solar power consumption since 2006. In 2013 Germany's 30 terawatt-hours (TWh) of solar power consumption was 24 percent of the world's total. Behind Germany the rest of the top five solar consumers were Italy (22.4 TWh), Spain (13.1 TWh), China (11.9 TWh) and Japan (10.7 TWh). The US was sixth globally, but the 114 percent increase in US solar consumption over 2012 was largest gain among the top 20 global consumers of solar power.
Asia accounts for nearly 90 percent of global production of solar PV modules, with China producing 67 percent of the world total. The top five solar PV manufacturers globally are Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) in China, rival Chinese producer Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL), Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ), JinkoSolar (NYSE: JKS; China), and ReneSola (NYSE: SOL; China). The US share of global solar PV manufacturing is 2.6 percent. The largest US solar PV manufacturer is First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR).
A recent Bloomberg News story noted that solar PV installations are expected to grow by as much as 29% this year, and by more than 50% over the next two years. This is expected to reverse a glut of solar PV manufacturing capacity that has persisted for the past two years. In fact, the solar PV industry is expecting a possible shortage of panels for the first time since 2006, which will benefit the bottom lines of the largest solar PV makers.
Conclusions
The solar power industry is booming and is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the near term as technological improvements drive down costs. In 2013, new capacity additions of solar PV surpassed wind power capacity additions for the first time in history. I expect this trend to continue, and for solar to be the best long-term bet in the renewable energy space.
We have profitably recommended three solar power companies in The Energy Strategist, including First Solar, which is up more than 91% since we made the case for it a year ago this week. We've added two more names in recent months that are performing strongly, and hope you will join us as we continue to evaluate outstanding opportunities in the sector.
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