Thursday, October 23, 2014


We're at a Crossroads

The Dow broke 17,000. The S&P crested over 2000. And now, just as things are getting good… triple-digit market drops have shaken investors everywhere. The truth is, the worst is yet to come. Out of the 16 bull markets since the Great Depression on, five lasted over five years. The bull market we're riding now is almost six years old. It's getting tired, and the cracks are showing.

If you're unsure of how to protect yourself, I have good news. I've found five bulletproof stocks that will get you through whatever happens in the markets.

Get their profitable details here.

Verizon Keeps the Connection

Thomas Scarlett

We're a long way from the days when Americans talked about "the phone company" because there was only one (AT&T). Today telecommunications is one of the most competitive industries around, with new technologies muscling out old ones seemingly overnight.

One of the most consistent performers in this turbulent space has been Verizon (NYSE: VZ). The company just released its latest earnings report, and while some found it underwhelming, it shows that the company's strengths are still in place.

The firm reported double-digit year-over-year percentage growth in reported and adjusted earnings per share for the 10th time in the past 11 quarters. But analysts were quick to point out that profits were not quite at the level they had predicted.

Several of Verizon's competitors, such as T-Mobile and Sprint, have become more aggressive on pricing lately, which has forced Verizon to adjust its own rates at the expense of its bottom line. But Verizon still has a 4G LTE network that is well ahead of its peers in terms of both coverage and capacity, which should enable to company to fend off its less-developed rivals.

The decline in profit at Verizon was front and center for analysts. Jim Breen of William Blair, who has a Market Perform rating on the stock, writes that price competition was the culprit, and Verizon is focusing on tablets to give it an edge:

With smartphone penetration now at a very high level, tablets with cellular connectivity are providing the next leg of growth for telecom companies like Verizon, which has shown itself nimble in adapting to this new marketplace.

The company posted another strong quarter of Verizon Wireless connections growth and profitability, and customer growth for FiOS fiber-optic services.

Chairman and CEO Lowell McAdam said: "We have great confidence heading into the fourth quarter, as Verizon continues to deliver consistently strong operating and financial results. We see continued, healthy customer demand for wireless and broadband services, and we are encouraged by the growth we are starting to see in the areas of video delivery and machine-to-machine. Our cash generation remains strong, and last month we were pleased to announce board approval of a quarterly dividend increase for the eighth consecutive year."

Verizon reported 89 cents in EPS in third-quarter 2014, compared with 78 cents per share in third-quarter 2013. No special items impacted third-quarter 2014 earnings. Third-quarter 2013 results included a non-operational net gain of 1 cent per share.

The 89 cents in EPS in third-quarter 2014 is a 15.6 percent increase compared with 77 cents per share on an adjusted basis (non-GAAP) in third-quarter 2013.

Verizon continues to enhance its 4G LTE device lineup. In the third quarter, Verizon Wireless launched the HTC One Remix, LG G Vista, Kyocera Brigadier, HTC One (M8) for Windows, Apple iPhone 6 and 6 Plus and New Moto X smartphones; the Verizon Jetpack 4G LTE Mobile Hotspot MiFi 6620L, and Samsung Galaxy Tab 4 (10.1) and Tab S 10.5 tablets.

Verizon Wireless added 1.53 million retail net connections, including 1.52 million retail postpaid connections, in the third quarter. These additions exclude acquisitions and adjustments. At the end of the third quarter, the company had 106.2 million retail connections. This includes 100.1 million retail postpaid connections, a 5.2 percent increase year over year.

The firm is also working on its OnCue Internet TV platform, which it recently purchased from Intel Corp.(NYSE: INTC). Verizon hasn't yet launched OnCue, but McAdam gave a hint of its future when he referred to it as a virtual video "jukebox" that would let consumers access a wide range of content from the cloud. Unlike cable, OnCue would offer transactional video-on-demand (where the customer pays for each individual program) and subscription functionality.

"I think that's a very attractive model for us. But it can't be the bundled 10 channels together and force users to take it over-the-top, the way they have done in their current linear model,"said McAdam, speaking at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom conference.

Verizon has a reliable dividend yield (currently 4.4 percent), unquestioned market share, and impressive free cash flow. The stock was trading up around 52 this summer, but the mixed earnings report has sent it down toward 48, leaving the company with a price-earnings ratio that is under 11 -- quite a bargain for a company with so many strengths. The stock is a buy up to 54.

Tom Scarlett is an investment analyst with Personal Finance.


China's Shady Arctic Intentions

It seems like China has caught on to the massive reserves of oil and natural gas in the Arctic. On top of muscling its way in the Arctic Council, a Chinese billionaire has been desperately trying to buy land in Iceland. He says it's to build a resort. But I know better. He's trying to establish a foothold in the icy north – as close to the 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas as he can get. China's not the only player in the Arctic, though. Russia is fighting for its share. Canada even claimed the North Pole as its very own!

I've found a way to profit from this frantic land grab.

The profitable details can be found when you click here.

Global Winners and Losers from Lower Oil Prices

Oil appears to have settled around $80 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude, close to $20 below its 2013 and 2012 averages of $98 in each year. If this is to become a long-term level, then the lower oil prices will work through the global economy, producing both winners and losers. Our Global Income Edge Conservative Portfolio has little energy exposure, and our main holding in the sector, Kinder Morgan, has maintained its value through the downturn in oil prices.

The U.S. is unlikely to feel much effect from the change. U.S. energy self-sufficiency has increased from 69% in 2005 to 84% in 2014, with most of that increase coming from greater production of natural gas. In oil alone, U.S. production covered 54% of consumption in 2013, according to BP's June 2014 Statistical Review of World Energy, a figure that is rising fast. So the U.S. is still a beneficiary of lower prices, but not by as much as it was. The big danger arises if prices fall below $70 or so, in which case U.S. fracking of shale deposits becomes uneconomic and the rapid increase in U.S. self-sufficiency ends.

For now, Canada and Mexico are clear losers from lower prices; both countries produce substantially more oil than they use.

Europe is the big winner from lower oil prices. France and Germany have almost no domestic oil production, while Italy's oil production is less than 10% of its use. Britain is in a similar position to the U.S., with oil production 59% of consumption in 2013, but in Britain's case production is currently declining as the North Sea oilfields age.

The Eurozone economy has been stagnant for several years, and has still to regain its 2008 highs. One of the reasons for this has been the stubbornly high level of oil prices, which is a considerable drag on the economies of non-oil producers. There's no question that the Eurozone as a whole, and France, Germany and Italy in particular, are big winners from lower oil prices, as consumers are given more cash to spend and balance of payments positions improve.

Africa and Latin America are both losers, on balance, from lower oil prices, although the impact differs among countries. Still, with Brazil producing 83% of its oil requirements, Venezuela and Colombia producing far more oil than they need and Argentina self-sufficient, only Peru and Chile of the investible economies are significant gainers from the change. And both of those countries have lost badly from lower minerals prices. Africa as a whole produces 244% of its oil consumption, although one of its leading economies, South Africa, has little oil production – but again loses by lower commodity prices.

Russia and the Middle East are the big losers by lower oil prices and in Russia's case could run into serious difficulties fairly quickly since most oil revenues run through the state and are quickly spent by Vladimir Putin's military machine or embezzled by his cronies.

Even Middle Eastern countries that don't have oil will be losers, since there will be less money available from the oil producers to prop them up.

Australia, which process 38% of its oil consumption, and China, which produces 41%, are both significant gainers from lower oil prices, while India, which produces 24% of its consumption, is a rather larger gainer, as is Philippines, which surprisingly produces little oil and Japan, which produces almost none.

Regrettably, companies in Japan, a big winner from lower oil prices, pay rotten dividends, as do companies in India, where share prices have got rather over-excited in the wake of Narendra Modi's May election victory. While the EU is decently dividend-oriented, France and Italy, two of the big winners from lower oil prices, have bloated government sectors and seem likely to suffer from any further Euro crisis (the likelihood of which is however somewhat lessened by the oil price decline).

Income-oriented international investors should therefore look for ETFs paying decent dividends in countries benefiting from lower prices, or possibly consumer-oriented stocks in those countries.

In Europe, I can suggest two alternatives. One is iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (NYSE: EWD), which I recently wrote about and which has a yield of 3.7%. Like most EU members, Sweden produces little oil, less than 5% of its needs, so is a big beneficiary of lower prices.

Alternatively, if you want to buy one of Europe's big beneficiaries and are prepared to compromise a little on yield I recommend the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSE: EWG). The main disadvantage of this fund is its yield of only 2.3%, but on the other hand Germany is one of the biggest beneficiaries of lower oil prices, both directly and indirectly through its manufacture of powerful cars and other oil-guzzling machinery. The fund is trading on a P/E of only 14, and has an expense ratio of only 0.51%, so you're not overpaying for it.

This article originally appeared in the Income Without Borders column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Income Without Borders by email.


Regular Joes Are Winning the Options Game?

Many regular Joes are racking up $100,000 trading options. They're not investment geniuses. But they've discovered the little-known option-trading secret that's made Warren Buffett almost $5 billion richer in the past decade. Forbes says, "It's like finding money in the street." Barron's says the strategy is "ignored by most investors." My regular Joes are ecstatic to be collecting $800 to $2,200 per trade! This is no gimmick. It's a sure and steady strategy that produces winning trades 8 out of 10 times. If you're interested,

the details are here.

Higher Returns on Safe Money Plus Long-Term Care Benefits

Most of you have a slug of "safe money" on which you'd like to earn a higher return without risking your principal. You also would like to protect your estates from long-term care expenses without the use-it-or-lose-it feature of stand-alone long-term care insurance policies. There are tools available to help you reach these goals.

I don't favor most policies that combine life insurance or annuities with LTC. They have shortcomings such as low returns, high costs for the LTC features, and less-than-robust LTC benefits. Once in a while an exception comes along that's worth considering.

Let's start with a review of the basics of indexed annuities.

An indexed annuity credits interest to your account each year, but the interest isn't determined by interest rates. Instead, it is determined by the performance of one or more market indices you selected from among those offered by the insurer. Usually they are stock indices.

You won't receive the full return of the index. The annuities usually have caps on the maximum amount of interest you can be credited with each year. There's also a participation rate. If the participation rate is 50% and the index increase is 6%, then your account is credited 3% for the year. Indexed annuities rarely use the straight total return calculation you see published to determine the index return to credit your account. Instead, formulas such as monthly averages and point-to-point are used. These could make the calculated return higher or lower than the widely-cited total return, depending on the pattern of the market for the year.

Indexed annuities also have a guaranteed minimum return. These days most guarantee 0%. Your account value won't decline no matter how much the index declines, and you can earn a higher return than from traditional safe investments if the index does well.

A combo policy will add LTC benefits and perhaps allow you to purchase additional LTC benefits. Typically, you can begin taking regular distributions from the annuity without penalty if you qualify for LTC, and you might be entitled to payouts that exceed your annuity balance. In addition, if you never need LTC, the annuity balance is available for your other needs or for a beneficiary to inherit.

Now, take a look at a new combo annuity/LTC, the Indexed Annuity Care from State Life Insurance Company, a OneAmerica company. State Life is a pioneer in annuity/LTC combo policies and is A+ rated by A.M. Best, ranking it among the most financially secure insurers in the U.S.

You make a lump sum payment of $50,000 or more, and the annuity can cover one person or a married couple jointly. You choose how the account is indexed. You can choose to earn straight interest or from among four crediting methods linked to the S&P 500. Each year on the contract anniversary date the account is credited with the appropriate interest. This interest is locked in. It can't be lost if the index subsequently declines. In years when the index is flat or declines, your account balance stays steady. You can change the index method once any time during the year, and it will be in place for at least the next year.

You can withdraw up to 10% of the account without penalty each year for the first nine years. After that, there is no surrender penalty for withdrawing funds. For withdrawals greater than 10%, the penalty is 9% the first year and declines by one percentage point each year. Of course, there is no penalty for distributions made after you or your spouse qualifies for LTC benefits.

There are several ways the annuity pays for LTC. Your deposit and compounded interest are available to pay for LTC. In addition, the amount available for LTC increases each year you own the annuity by one percentage point. For example, after five years up to 105% of the balance is available for LTC; after 10 years 110% is available for LTC, and so forth.

Plus, you can buy a rider for additional LTC benefits, called a Continuation of Benefit Rider. This can cover up to a lifetime of benefits if you want. Once the premium for the additional benefits is set, it can't be increased as long as you own the annuity. You also can choose to add an inflation adjustment to the additional benefits. The inflation increase can be 2% to 5% compounded annually.

When a married couple buys the annuity jointly, each spouse can receive the full maximum monthly LTC benefits at the same time.

State Life will issue the annuities to people as old as 85. To qualify, there's a telephone interview of about 15 minutes plus a review of your medical history after your application is completed. These are advantages to someone who isn't qualified for stand alone LTC policies or is charged high premiums for them.

The LTC benefits are tax-qualified. That means any distributions for LTC are income-tax free, and any premiums paid for the additional care rider (but not the basic annuity payment) are deductible as itemized medical expenses. Many other annuity/LTC combos aren't tax qualified, and distributions from them to pay for LTC are taxed as ordinary income.

There are a few other benefits. You can exchange an existing annuity tax free for this annuity. The annuity can be purchased through a traditional IRA. Even the Continuation of Benefits rider can be purchased with a tax-free annuity exchange. In that case, benefits paid out for LTC under the rider would be taxable, similar to ordinary IRA distributions.

Here's an example of how Indexed Annuity Care can work.

Max and Rosie Profits are married and both age 65. They use $100,000 from a maturing CD to jointly purchase the Indexed Annuity Care. Let's say future stock index returns are below average, and on average 3% annually is credited to their annuity. At age 80 the balance is $155,797.

At that point, each of them needs LTC and triggers LTC payouts from the annuity. Because they've owned the annuity for 15 years, their LTC benefits are $179,166 (their $155,797 balance plus 15%, or 115% of their balance). The benefits are payable over 30 months (24 months for an individual annuity owner), so their maximum monthly benefit is $5,972 ($179,166 divided by 30). Each of them will receive that amount each month until the annuity benefits are exhausted or they have passed away.

If Max and Rosie purchased the Continuation of Benefits rider at the start, after 30 months the benefits would continue for the additional term they selected.

Suppose instead Max and Rosie never need LTC, live to 90, and earn 3% annually. They would leave an annuity balance of $209,378 for their beneficiaries to inherit.

The Indexed Annuity Care offers several advantages. It's available to older people and to some who aren't medically qualified to purchase stand-alone LTCI. It's a way to earn a higher return on safe money and to increase the amount available to pay for any LTC you need. It can have some tax advantages. If you don't need LTC the money is available for your other needs or for heirs.


Secure your retirement! Cash in on this 1962 prediction that's becoming a reality

Back in 1962, two unlikely men became wildly popular based on their vision of how the world would look in 2062.

We still have a long way to go until 2062, but many of their farfetched predictions are becoming a reality right now. And they're creating a $600 billion market in its wake.

It's still early enough that if you make the right move, you can cash in and secure your retirement on this.

See why it's almost a surefire bet by

going here.

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