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Over the course of history, the average time between 20% corrections is 635 days. We're currently at 1,358 days. Time is running out for you to protect your portfolio. Here are five stocks to get you through any market. Click here.
| | | 11/05/2014 By Jim Pearce 
Warning signs are flashing on Wall Street.
Headlines like these are popping up all over the place: - "Stock Market Bubble Warnings Growing Louder"
—CNN Money - "Rarefied Territory—Market Correction Ahead"
—Forbes - "Greenspan Says Stocks to See 'Significant Correction'"
—Bloomberg You should take these fearful headlines seriously.
The average time between 20% price corrections in the market is 635 days. It's now been 1,358 days since the last 20% drop.
And Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller—developer of the Shiller Index—said, "The United States stock market looks very expensive right now."
His index compares stock prices to corporate profits, and it recently climbed above 25. That level was passed only three times since the 1800s: 1929, 1999 and 2007.
Massive market crashes followed each time. The average one-day drop was nearly 15%.
The scariest of all the indicators may be the poll that found that 75% of financial advisors consider themselves bullish. Whenever such a high number of market watchers are upbeat, it's actually a powerful contrarian indicator.
The last time it was that high was before the market crash of 1987. The outcome? A 25% drop in the S&P 500.
As I said, you've probably seen some of this—or at least sense it. And you might not be sure what to do.
But the simple truth is this …
You're Right to Be Concerned
Meantime, no matter what the mainstream press throws around about the turnaround, people don't believe them.
Why would they? The truth of the matter is, times are still tough.
More than 46 million people in our country still rely on food programs to eat. The labor participation rate just hit a 36-year low.
And perhaps worst of all, 36% of Americans have nothing saved for retirement.
All these things are sad—and scary. Especially when you consider what's at stake.
But I'm not writing you today to scare you. Quite the contrary.
I Can Show You a Way Out of This Mess
My name is Jim Pearce, and I'm the chief strategist of Personal Finance, the oldest and most widely followed financial advisory.
If you're in the market right now, I'm going to show you how to protect yourself—and profit.
And if you're not in the market, what I'm about to show you will give you everything you need to shed the fear and make some serious money.
Nothing is ever guaranteed, of course. But the stocks I've selected for you are as bulletproof a hideout for your money as I know of.
I've put them all together in what I call my "Protect & Prosper Kit."
Inside are two special reports that will show you how to do both: - "Five Bulletproof Stocks for ANY Market"
- "How to Profit From the Coming Crash"
I'll tell you how to get yours free in just a moment. But first, it's important that you why this new wealth-protection package is unlike anything you'll find anywhere else.
For one, it's backed by…
40 Years of Profits in All Market Conditions
Through my 30 years as a stockbroker, I learned one critical lesson: there's a way out of even the bleakest situations—if you know where to look.
We started Personal Finance back in 1974, during one of the worst markets in history. You may remember that time: the stock market was tanking, oil was in short supply, and inflation was through the roof.
In spite of everything, Personal Finance subscribers didn't just protect their assets—they prospered.
Some of the inflation-leveraged investments we recommended produced truly astounding gains. Gold grew by 1,458%, while U.S. coins piled up 1,053%. Silver racked up 738% gains.
Or how about from 2000 till now, one of the toughest investing periods of our lifetimes. The S&P 500 was showing investors small gains of only 4% a year—barely enough to stay ahead of inflation.
But during that same time, Personal Finance subscribers nearly tripled their money.
That was in spite of the worst market crash since 1929 happening right in the middle of it. If you had invested $50,000 in our picks in 2000, you could have cashed out with a cool $140,500 in August of 2014.
The bottom line: You don't amass a track record like that without paying attention to the big picture.
What's Inside Your "Protect & Prosper Kit"
We've taken everything we've learned in those 40 years—through boom and bust—and poured it all into this unbeatable new package.
These companies have all been carefully selected for their ability to weather any downturn—no matter if it comes next week, next month or next year.
What's more, they let you profit even if the downturn never comes.
Stocks like Bulletproof Profit-Maker #3—just one of the picks you'll discover in your "Protect & Prosper Kit."
Smartphones are setting up to be one of the largest trends ever to sweep the planet.
Consider this: In Southeast Asia alone, sales are up a stunning 43% this year. That means by year-end, it will be a $16.8-billion market.
The story is the same in countries all around the globe.
But we'd never recommend you buy a smartphone company. There's too many out there, and the odds of picking the clear winner are low.
Instead, you can buy shares of this company. It makes a key component used in all cellphones.
Best of all, it gets a royalty for every unit sold. That means it makes money no matter which smartphone maker comes out on top.
Sales were up 30% last year, and I expect that to continue. Plus, it yields a solid 2.3%. That means you can sit back and get paid to watch the share price grow as smartphone use spreads like wildfire.
But that's not all.
The Protect & Prosper Kit also includes the report "How to Profit From the Coming Crash."
Inside, we give you another set of assets that can build a moat around your wealth. And just like the Bulletproof Stocks, all the stocks in this report will help you prosper no matter what the markets do.
How to Start Bulletproofing Your Portfolio Now
To make sure you're ready when the next correction inevitably arrives, I'd like to send you your "Protect & Prosper Kit" right now—today. We're making it available free of charge to anyone who samples our research at Personal Finance.
Simply click here to check out the "Protect & Prosper Kit" now.
If you want to keep the money you've spent years accumulating, I urge you to grab this powerful set of reports today. They give you a set of assets that erect a wall around your wealth and actually make you money when markets fall out of bed.
Editor's note: It's only a matter of time before the market starts taking back some of what it's handed out. But if you invest in the stocks Jim reveals in these new free reports, you'll no longer have to worry about when it will happen.
Don't stand by helplessly watching your wealth evaporate in the coming correction. Instead, sail above it all with the stocks in these two ground-breaking reports—both yours free in Jim's one-of-a-kind "Protect & Prosper Kit."
Go here to get all the details now. | | |
A market correction looms on the horizon. Headlines everywhere warn of its approach. And a triple-digit market drop should be all the evidence you need that the bull market is on its last legs. All of this has wary investors shaken to the core.
Except for one group of smart investors who own my five bulletproof stocks. You can own them, too. I'll give you their names when you click here.
| | | 11/05/2014 By Chad Fraser 
Few U.S. companies are better established than Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).
The company, a holding in our Personal Finance advisory's Growth Portfolio, traces its roots back to 1886, when it was founded by three brothers: Robert Wood Johnson, James Wood Johnson and Edward Mead Johnson, in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
Then, as now, Johnson & Johnson relied on a steady stream of breakthrough treatments to drive its growth.
In 1888, the company developed the first commercial first aid kit, which was initially designed for railroad workers. That year, it also published Modern Methods of Antiseptic Wound Treatment, which contained information on making surgery more sterile.
Other developments followed, such as maternity kits aimed at making childbirth safer (1884) and Band-Aid bandages (1920).
(The company's history of innovation is just one reason why we've added it to our new "Protect & Prosper Kit," which includes two free reports packed with stocks we've handpicked to get you through any market downturn. See below to get yours now.)
Growth of a Diversified Health Care Giant
Johnson & Johnson began trading publicly in 1944 and has gone on to become one of the world's largest companies, boasting a $300-billion market cap and 128,700 employees worldwide.
International markets accounted for 55% of its 2013 sales; the other 45% came from the U.S.
The company has three divisions: - Pharmaceutical (39% of 2013 revenue) makes treatments in immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology and other areas;
- Medical devices and diagnostics (40% of revenue) makes a range of products that are mainly used by health care professionals in fields including cardiovascular, surgery, vision care, orthopedics and diabetes;
- Consumer (21%) makes the personal care and over-the-counter products Johnson & Johnson is perhaps best known for. In addition to Johnson's baby shampoo and Band-Aid bandages, brands include Neutrogena (moisturizer), Listerine (mouthwash) and Tylenol.
R&D Holds the Key
Johnson & Johnson consistently channels around 11% of its yearly sales into research and development, for a total of about $8.1 billion last year. It's particularly focused on pharmaceuticals: in 2013, this division's R&D costs amounted to 20.7% of its sales.
As a measure of just how effective its R&D efforts have been, consider that about a quarter of Johnson & Johnson's 2013 sales came from products it had introduced in the past five years.
Successes from its drug pipeline include prostate cancer drug Zytiga, Invokana (type 2 diabetes), Imbruvica (mantle cell lymphoma) and Remicade, its current top seller, which has been approved for conditions including rheumatoid arthritis, adult and pediatric Crohn's disease and plaque psoriasis.
In all, the company markets more than 100 treatments in over 125 countries. That, plus its continued R&D investments, puts it in a good position as global health care spending heads skyward.
According to a recent report from Deloitte, worldwide health outlays rose 2.6% in 2013, but the consulting firm sees that rising to an average of 5.3% a year between 2013 and 2017.
That's partly due to an aging population. By 2013, average global life expectancy is expected to hit 73.7 years, up from 72.6 in 2013. An older population is one factor spurring the spread of chronic conditions like heart disease, cancer and diabetes. According to Deloitte, chronic diseases are responsible for 63% of all deaths around the world.
Johnson & Johnson released its latest quarterly results on October 14, and as has been the case in recent quarters, the pharmaceutical division led the way.
New Treatments Keep Drug Sales Rising
Johnson & Johnson posted $18.50 billion of sales in the third quarter, up 5.1% from a year ago and ahead of the Street's expectation of $18.41 billion. Setting aside special items, earnings per share gained 9.5%, to $1.50, also beating the consensus forecast of $1.43.
Pharmaceutical revenue jumped 18.1%, to $8.3 billion, thanks in part to strong sales of new drugs like Olysio (hepatitis C), Zytiga, Xarelto (an anticoagulant), Invokana and Imbruvica.
The hepatitis C market is becoming increasingly important to drug makers. It's uncertain how many people have the disease, because it can remain in the body for long periods while showing few symptoms, but the World Health Organization pegs the number at around 3% of the global population, or about 170 million people.
Olysio, approved by the FDA last November, was the pharmaceutical division's second-highest-selling drug in the third quarter, at $796 million, trailing only Remicade, at $1.8 billion. Sales have been helped by the fact that some doctors have been prescribing Olysio in combination with Gilead Sciences' (NYSE: GILD) Sovaldi treatment.
Elsewhere, the consumer business's sales fell 0.6%, while sales at the medical devices and diagnostics segment declined 5.2%. However, on June 30, Johnson & Johnson closed the $4.0-billion sale of its blood-testing business. Excluding this operation, the devices division saw a 1.6% sales gain in Q3.
In light of the strong results, management raised its full-year earnings guidance to $5.92 to $5.97 a share from a prior estimate of $5.85 to $5.92.
Stiffer Competition in Hep C
Johnson & Johnson continues to face strong competition in the pharmaceutical market.
Olysio, for example, will soon be competing with Gilead's Harvoni hepatitis C treatment, which was approved last month. Though all hepatitis C drugs are costly (Gilead made headlines when it launched Sovaldi with a price tag of $84,000 for a 12-week regimen), Harvoni will cost more than Sovaldi but will likely be cheaper than the Olysio/Sovaldi combination.
Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky, for his part, sounds like he's ready to compete.
"We believe that Olysio ... has very good safety and efficacy and given the size, complexity and diversity of this patient population, physicians will continue to need multiple treatment options," he said on the post-earnings conference call. "We plan to remain competitive in the hepatitis C marketplace, and we will work with payers to maintain access for Olysio in the marketplace."
It's also important to keep in mind that even Remicade, Johnson & Johnson's top-selling drug last year, still accounted for less than 10% of its total revenue. It also has other treatments in clinical trials, including sirukumab (rheumatoid arthritis) guselkumab (psoriasis) and esketamine (treatment-resistant depression).
30 Years of Profit Increases---and Counting
The company has managed to increase its adjusted earnings for 30 consecutive years, and that streak appears to be in no danger, with analysts forecasting profits of $5.96 a share this year, more or less in line with Johnson & Johnson's updated estimate.
Analysts expect earnings to climb to $6.21 a share in 2015, and the stock trades at 17.5 times that figure, which looks reasonable compared to the S&P 500's forward p/e ratio of 16.65.
In April, Johnson & Johnson raised its dividend for the 51st consecutive year. That puts it in an elite group: other companies that can claim to have hiked their payouts annually for more than a half-century include Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) and Coca Cola (NYSE: KO). Johnson & Johnson shares currently yield 2.6%.
That's not the only way JNJ rewards shareholders: the company announced a $5-billion share buyback program in July. There are no time limits on these repurchases.
Time Is Running Out to Protect Your Portfolio
Over the long term, the average time between 20% market corrections is 635 days---and we're sitting at 1,358 days.
Are you ready for the inevitable?
Our new "Protect & Prosper Kit" gives you everything you need to weather the next downturn---and profit---while other investors panic. But you must act now.
Don't let the coming correction steal your hard-earned wealth. Instead, give yourself the advantage with the stocks you'll discover in this extraordinary package---yours free.
Click here to find out more. | | |
The Shiller Index – which compares stock prices to corporate profits – recently climbed above 25. "So what?" you say. Well, the last three times it did that were in 1929, 1999, and 2007. And massive market crashes followed each time.
Are you sure your portfolio can withstand that kind of punishment again? If not, I have some good news. I have the names of five bulletproof stocks that I'd like to give you. You can get all their details when you click here.
| | | 11/04/2014 By Robert Rapier 
Same Song, Different Party You may have noticed that, 1) it is election season and, 2) gasoline prices are declining. This has some pundits attempting to connect the dots to imply that somehow President Obama is manipulating gasoline prices in order to win elections. It doesn't matter which party is in office, these accusations always seem to pop up at election time. It happened when Clinton was in office, it happened when Bush was in office, and now it's happening while Obama is in office. The only things that change are the party that is being accused of manipulating prices, and the partisans defending or accusing that party. This year it's Fox News doing the accusing, and MSNBC defending. But as I have pointed out many times, there are fundamental, predictable reasons for the tendency of gasoline prices to decline at this time of year. This happens most years, even in non-election years. Gasoline prices fell at this time of year in 2011, 2012, and 2013 --- two of which were non-election years. It is just that the political accusations only arise during election years. Why Gasoline Declines in Fall Gasoline prices fall at this time of year for three reasons. First, summer driving season is over, and demand is typically declining at this time of year. At the same time, the gasoline specifications switch over to a winter blend that is cheaper to produce. Further, these winter blends contain a higher percentage of an ingredient (butane) that is available in greater abundance. See my article Why Gasoline Prices are Falling for a more thorough explanation of this issue. So we have lower demand, lower production costs, and greater supplies all converging at about this time every year. This year, add in the fact that oil prices have retreated sharply since summer, and the confluence of factors has driven gasoline prices to their lowest level in four years. In some years, extraordinary circumstances can override this general tendency of price declines in the fall. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 took a large fraction of oil production offline in the Gulf of Mexico at a time that the oil supply was already tight, and this drove oil prices sharply higher. So that year we didn't see the typical fall price decline. The President Is Not an Energy Tsar Presidents can enact policies that influence the price of gasoline in the long term, but there are only a couple of ways a president can influence short-term gasoline prices, and both are very public. A president can announce a release of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to flood oil into the market and depress prices. President Clinton actually did this leading up to an election, so the charge that he attempted to manipulate prices has some basis. A president can also convince Congress to temporarily lower the federal gasoline tax in order to reduce gasoline prices. Again, that would be an obvious attempt to gain political favor if done just before election, and it is a gimmick that John McCain and Hillary Clinton both proposed when they were running for president. Who Benefits? Regardless of the cause, oil and gasoline prices are falling, and that's boosting the economy by giving consumers more discretionary income just ahead of the holidays. Retailers should be among the biggest beneficiaries. On the other hand the stocks of companies that produce oil and gas are getting hammered, while those that rely on oil, natural gas, or refined products (e.g., gasoline) as inputs should see earnings improve. This includes airlines, trucking companies and marine shipping. Also, as I have pointed out previously (see Rocket and Feathers), within the energy industry oil refiners usually benefit from falling oil prices, because they are generally able to widen their margins as oil prices fall. In fact, many refiners are now reporting earnings that are much better than expected. For example, last week refiner Tesoro (NYSE: TSO ) reported adjusted earnings of $3.06 per share, much higher than the consensus estimate of $2.15, and far ahead of the year-ago quarter adjusted earnings per share of 44 cents. This week Valero (NYSE: VLO) also handily beat estimates, more than tripling their profit from the same quarter in 2013. By the same token, integrated oil and gas companies will generally outperform pure oil and gas companies when oil prices are falling, because their refining divisions will help offset the decline in upstream operations that results from falling prices. Conclusions Oil and gasoline prices are falling, for reasons much more obvious and rational than political manipulation. Such conspiracy theories have no basis in fact. Gasoline prices generally decline in the fall, and conversely rise in the spring just ahead of summer driving season. Investors should take heed of the industries that will benefit from the decline in energy prices. Although I am extremely bullish on the long-term prospects of the energy sector, the sector is cyclical. It is important to pick your entry points during the down cycle. There are times that the sector will underperform. As a result, even though I always keep money in the energy sector, over 70% of my own portfolio is invested outside the sector. Within the energy sector, the refiners are presently outperforming the rest of the sector. This article originally appeared in the The Energy Letter column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive The Energy Letter by email. | | |
Signs everywhere point to a major market correction. The average time between 20% price drops is 635 days. We're currently at 1,358 days. The Shiller Index – a measure of stock prices versus corporate profits – is above 25. It's only passed that level three times: 1929, 1999, and 2007. Massive crashes followed each time.
Can you afford to give back all the gains the last six years have handed you? Me neither. That's why I'd like to give you the names of five bulletproof stocks that will get you through any market. Get all their lucrative details are here.
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