Thursday, November 13, 2014


Buffett Rule Number One: Size Matters – But Not How You Think

If you're hunting for your first million, think small. You'll never make your big killing by investing in Walmart or Apple today. Can't happen. Nothing against those big companies, but their massive price jumps are behind them. Warren Buffett learned this lesson decades ago. That's why he invested early in stocks that are small and cheap. Follow this path and you'll give yourself a bundle of investing advantages. Want proof?

Click here.

Refresh Your Portfolio

Thomas Scarlett

It's been more than five years now since the terrifying financial collapse of 2008. After bottoming out in early 2009, the stock market has enjoyed a remarkable run for most of the last four and a half years. But many are now asking whether the bull market is over.

Not necessarily. The S&P 500's current price-earnings ratio is around 19 today. That's higher than the average P/E since 1935, which is 17. But it's noticeably lower than the average P/E for the last 20 years, which is more like 25. While the market has made remarkable gains, much of that merely recouped what was lost during the collapse of 2008-2009.

Over the long haul, stocks are still the place to be. Well-established companies will continue to generate strong revenue and profits, even though there may be some bumps in the road along the way. One of the most well-established food and beverage companies in the United States is Pepsico (NYSE: PEP).

Pepsico is more than just the famous soft drink, although it continues to be the largest contributor to the company's revenue stream. Pepsico also owns Frito-Lay, Gatorade, Quaker Oats, Tropicana, Lipton and much else.

Within North America, PepsiCo is the largest food and beverage business by net revenue. Based on net revenue, it is the second largest food and beverage business in the world. As Americans prepare to put on the feedbag to celebrate Thanksgiving, Christmas and other holidays, chances are they will be consuming some products sold by Pepsico.

The company recently inspired some humorous commentary when it said it would be selling Doritos-flavored Mountain Dew. But given the American fondness for these kinds of snack foods, the product will probably be a hit.

PepsiCo was formed in 1965 with the merger of thePepsi-ColaCompany andFrito-Lay, Inc. As of January 26, 2014, 22 of PepsiCo's brands generated retail sales of more than $1billion apiece, and the company's products were distributed across more than 200 countries, resulting in annualnet revenuesof $43.3billion.

Indra Nooyihas been the chief executive of PepsiCo since 2006, and the company employed approximately 274,000 people worldwide as of 2013. The company's beverage distribution and bottling is conducted by PepsiCo as well as by licensed bottlers in certain regions.

About a month ago, Pepsico reported organic revenue growth of 3.1 percent and core earnings per share of $1.36 for the third quarter.

"We delivered good third quarter results in the face of an ongoing challenged macroeconomic environment driven by increasing volatility in the emerging markets and continued sluggish consumer demand in developed markets," said Chairman and CEO Indra Nooyi.

"Our organic revenue grew three percent and we achieved positive effective net pricing through strong price/pack revenue management. Together with our relentless focus on productivity, this translated to both gross margin and operating margin expansion. We achieved these results because our brands are strong, our product portfolio is on-trend, our geographic footprint is broad and diverse, and we are executing well in the marketplace."

Based on the strength of the year-to-date results and outlook for the remainder of the year, the company raised its full year, core constant currency earnings growth target to 9 percent.

The company has been expanding rapidly in Latin America. Organic revenue grew 9 percent, reflecting 12 percentage points of effective net pricing, partially offset by a 2.5 percent organic volume decline. Reported net revenue grew 6 percent, reflecting a 3-percentage-point unfavorable impact from foreign exchange translation.

Organic revenue in Mexico was even and volume declined 3 percent, reflecting the adverse impact of the enactment of taxes on certain food products. The balance of the Latin America Foods business experienced double-digit organic revenue growth led by growth in Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil.

Pepsico is targeting over $10 billion in cash flow from operating activities and more than $7 billion in free cash flow in 2014. Net capital spending is expected to be approximately $3 billion in 2014, within the company's long-term capital spending target of less than or equal to 5 percent of net revenue.

The company expects to return a total of $8.7 billion to shareholders in 2014 through dividends of approximately $3.7 billion and share repurchases of approximately $5 billion.

Pepsico's price-earnings ratio is now around 21 -- just slightly higher than the market as a whole, and well justified by the company's iconic brand names and international growth possibilities. The market cap is closing in on $150 billion. So have a Pepsi and a smile.

Tom Scarlett is an investment analyst at Personal Finance.


Oil-Stock Sell-Off Spells Buying Opportunity

Solid oil stocks have taken an undeserved beating, falling by 30% to 50% in 6 weeks. The last time oil shares bottomed like this, they bounced back 56%. This is a 5-alarm BUY opportunity. I know 4 quality energy stocks that can be had at outrageously low prices. My favorite offers a whopping profit upside of 74%, and another energy gem projects a 64% profit upside in 18 months or less – if, that is, you grab them now. Don't delay on this opportunity.

Go straight here.

Making Smarter Gifts to Family Members

Giving gifts isn't as easy as one might think. It's not easy, that is, if you want to maximize the value and impact of your gifts. Watching every gift is the tax man, looking to take a piece of it. Even if your estate isn't likely to be taxable, taxes still are a concern when making gifts. You need to look at ways to make gifts that will minimize income and capital gains taxes now and in the future for you and your family. Plus, you never know what the estate tax situation will be in the future. You don't want to waste today federal tax breaks you might need in the future.

First, here's a review of the fundamentals.

The estate tax exemption is set at $5 million per person, indexed for inflation. For 2014 the exemption is $5.34 million and for 2015 it will be $5.43 million. Married couples can use the portability provisions to jointly exempt twice that amount. There's also a lifetime gift tax exemption of the same amount as the estate tax exemption. If you make more than $5.34 million of taxable gifts during your lifetime, gifts above that amount are taxable. Plus, any use of the lifetime gift tax exemption reduces the estate tax exemption. So, you have a combined lifetime estate and gift tax exemption of $5.34 million in 2014. It's called the unified exemption in the tax code. You can give tax-free now or later.

There are ways to give money and property without using up the lifetime estate and gift tax exemption.

Many people make use of the annual gift tax exemption. In 2014 and 2015 you can give up to $14,000 of money or property each year to each person you want without it being a taxable gift or counting against your lifetime estate and gift tax exemption. (The $14,000 is indexed for inflation.) A married couple can jointly give each person up to $28,000 gift tax free for the year.

Suppose Max and Rosie Profits have three children. Max can give each child up to $14,000 in 2014, or a total of $42,000. Rosie can do the same. The gifts won't use his lifetime gift tax exemption or reduce his estate tax exemption. Or Max and Rosie can jointly give $28,000 per child, or a total of $84,000. If the Profits have grandchildren, they can give each grandchild the same $28,000 jointly without estate or gift tax consequences.

The annual gift tax exemption isn't restricted to gifts to family members. The same exemption is available for gifts to friends, acquaintances, and even strangers. And you can give to as many people as you want during the year. There's no limit to the number of people, only on the tax exempt amount you can give to each person.

The gifts can be of money or property. The value of a gift of property is its fair market value on the date of the gift. The $14,000 limit applies to the total of all gifts to that person during the year, not to each individual gift.

Gifts to a trust qualify for the annual gift tax exclusion when they are gifts of present interests. This generally means the trust must have a Crummey power that entitles the beneficiary to take the money out of the trust within a time frame after the gift was made. After the time passes, the property stays in the trust subject to its rules.

There also is an unlimited gift tax exclusion that doesn't reduce the lifetime exclusions or the annual gift tax exclusion. The unlimited exclusion is for gifts of medical and education expenses. Payments must be made directly to the provider of the services to qualify for the unlimited exemption. If you give money to the person receiving the services, then that gift applies against the annual exclusion and lifetime exemption.

Only qualified medical and education expenses qualify. Qualified education expenses are only tuition at any level of schooling. Room and board, books, fees, and other costs don't qualify. Qualified medical expenses are any that meet the definition of deductible medical expenses. You can find more details in free IRS Publications 709 and 950, available free at www.irs.gov or by calling 800-TAX-FORM.

There are strategies that will help you maximize the benefits of these rules or avoid some pitfalls. They reduce income and capital gains taxes, even when the estate and gift tax aren't likely to be factors.

* Don't give loss property. When you give property, the beneficiary has to establish a tax basis in it. When the property eventually is sold, the capital gain or loss will be the amount realized on the sale minus the basis.

When you give property in which you have a paper loss, the beneficiary's basis will be the lower of your basis and the current market value. That means the beneficiary will reduce the basis to current market value, and the loss incurred while you owned the property won't be deductible by anyone.

It's better if you sell the loss property, and deduct the loss on your tax return. You can give the after-sale proceeds or other property to loved ones.

* Consider giving appreciating property. When a beneficiary is in a lower-tax bracket than yours, it makes a lot of sense to give property you expect to appreciate. When the property eventually is sold, the taxable gains are off your tax return. They're on your loved one's tax return, and taxed at a lower rate.

Giving property you expect to appreciate also removes the future appreciation from your estate. Giving the property before the appreciation essentially allows you to give more tax free, because the future appreciation doesn't apply against your annual gift tax exclusion or lifetime estate and gift tax exclusions.

* Consider holding highly appreciated property. You could give property that's already appreciated a lot to someone in the 0% or even 10% capital gains tax bracket. They'll pay a fraction of the capital gains taxes that you would. But be sure that selling the property wouldn't put them in a higher bracket.

Also, consider instead holding the property and having it pass through your estate. When appreciated property is received as a gift, the beneficiary takes the same tax basis the previous owner had. That means all the appreciation is taxed whenever the beneficiary sells it.

When property is inherited through an estate, however, the beneficiary's tax basis is its fair market value as of the date of the owner's death. That means if you hold highly appreciated property for life, the appreciation during your lifetime never is subject to capital gains taxes. It can make sense to hold property that's already appreciated a lot.

* Give income-producing assets. With the estate tax less of a factor for most people, gift giving should focus more on reducing family income taxes. You might be in a high income-tax bracket and have assets that are generating taxable income in excess of your needs.

In that case, it makes sense to give those assets instead of cash. The income is shifted to a lower tax bracket, keeping more after-tax wealth in your family. Also, a gift of income-producing property could induce the beneficiaries to hold the property. They might recognize the benefit of having an asset that generates regular income.

When giving to youngsters, keep the Kiddie Tax in mind. When a child is under age 19 (or under 24 if a full-time college student), the child's investment income is taxed at his or her parents' highest tax rate when the child's investment income exceeds $1,900 (indexed for inflation each year). Details about the Kiddie Tax are in IRS Publications 17 and 929 and in the instructions to Form 8615 available free at www.irs.gov or by calling 800-TAX-FORM.

* Plan 2014 and 2015 gifts together. I usually favor making gifts early instead of the end-of-year holiday period that most people favor. Early year gifts ensure the gifts are made and the year's income and appreciation are out of your estate or off your tax return.

Planning two years together also is advantageous when giving property that has to be appraised. An appraisal costs money. If you give interests in that property in December and again in January, then you probably have to pay only for one appraisal.


Frackers Are Running Out of What???

Every year drillers use 140 billion gallons of an essential resource. That's caused supplies to become dangerously low. Let's face it, there's no way "Big Oil" is ready to pull the plug on America's energy boom. So they're doing whatever they have to in order to secure supplies. And right now that means paying up to 29 times market prices.

I've found two companies that have a stranglehold on this vital resource. Both are set to see gains of up to 1,019% as frackers come clamoring for what they have.

Get the profitable details here.

Searching for a Bottom

Robert Rapier

About two years ago, I outlined my expectations for oil prices over the next few years. I reiterated those expectations in an article here at Investing Daily in mid-summer 2013. I wrote that I thought "oil is likely to trade in a range --- perhaps as low as $70 up to maybe $120 for the next few years."

That may seem like an awfully wide range, but over the past year we have flirted with both ends of it. In June the price of West Texas Intermediate was hovering near $110 a barrel (bbl), while Brent exceeded $115/bbl. On the low end, this past week the price of WTI closed in the upper $70's/bbl, while Brent fell to the lower $80's.

The history of the oil industry is one of cycles. Prices fluctuate according to the dynamics of supply and demand. When there is a large differential between available oil and demand for that oil, there is downward pressure on prices. The extent of the pressure is related to the extent of the gap between demand and supply.

Several years ago I created a graphic to show what was happening with oil supply and demand and how that was affecting prices.

141112TELoilinoughts

What the graph illustrates is that at the beginning of the last decade, the available oil production capacity around the world was comfortably ahead of global demand. But the price of oil at that time was low, and when prices are low oil companies invest less money in new oil exploration and production.

You have probably heard the saying "The cure for high prices is high prices." Well, the inverse of that is true as well. When oil prices are low, demand growth is more robust but investment in new capacity lags. This happened over the first half of the previous decade, and so what had been perhaps 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare capacity in 2000 had shrunk to maybe 2 million bpd by 2005 as robust demand growth eroded the world's oil supply cushion.

The rest is history. Not only did this diminishing supply cushion cause the price of oil to rise, but it greatly increased the price volatility. This is because when you have 5 million bpd of spare capacity, loss of 1 or 2 million bpd because of unrest in an oil producing country won't upset the market all that much because there are still plenty of other suppliers to fill the void. Decrease that supply cushion to 2 million bpd and traders get very nervous when supplies are lost from major oil producing countries like Libya or Nigeria.

But then when the price of oil rises, oil companies spend a lot of money to explore for and produce oil. The higher the price, the greater the spending. High oil prices made shale oil production economical for the first time, but then the resulting shale oil boom led to production growth outstripping demand growth.

To put the shale rush into perspective, over the past five years global oil production has increased by 3.85 million bpd. But U.S. production increased by 3.22 million bpd over that time span after falling with nary an interruption for nearly 40 years. Thus, the recent U.S. oil boom -- spurred on by higher oil prices -- is responsible for 83.6% of the total global oil production increase.

So higher prices did what higher prices do -- increased investment and boosted oil production (there was a three-year lag between the first oil price spikes of 2004-5 and production growth given the time required to complete a project). But high prices also curbed demand growth, and once more the world began to see its supply cushion expanding. It has taken a bit longer than I expected, but oil prices have finally softened in response.

How far might they fall? In the short term, prices can overcorrect in either direction. Could crude drop to $50/bbl? It could temporarily (although I don't think it's likely), but it wouldn't stay there long. Already companies are announcing reductions in capital expenditures for 2015, and thus begins the first step in setting up the next rise in the price of oil.

Why did I set $70/bbl as the lower limit of the trading range? Because the marginal cost of shale oil is probably around $80/bbl. New spending will slow at that level (as we are already seeing), and that will slow future supply growth, while demand growth is likely to pick up in response to lower prices.

A recent Bloomberg story noted that there is still plenty of money to be made for oil companies at $80/bbl oil, but there are also plays that will be uneconomical to produce above that level. Deepwater exploration can be even costlier and more price-sensitive than shale drilling. Thus, the further oil prices fall, the more capital spending will be cut and the slower future supplies will grow.


141112TELbreakevens
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

On the other hand, as the graphic above shows, some shale plays have breakeven costs as low as $50/bbl. So there is still plenty of money to be made even at the lower end of my expected range. It largely depends on a given company's leaseholds.

But what do I think will happen when we break out of that trading range? The same thing that happened after we broke out of the previous range. We will produce all of the easiest shale plays, and prices will rise as those supplies deplete. (On the flip side, the costs of exploiting existing plays are falling as producers climb the shale oil learning curve.)

Just as we have already seen "peak $20/bbl oil," we will see "peak $70/bbl oil" and then we will see oil prices break to the upside and establish a new range well above the current price. When might that happen? Stay tuned.

Conclusions

Investing in oil and gas producers is all about understanding the cycle and picking your entry points. I still believe that a $70-$120/bbl range for oil over the next few years is likely to hold. As oil rises above $85/bbl I become more conservative in my buys, and the further we fall below $85/bbl the more aggressive I become. Given the current WTI price of ~$78/bbl, I think we are near a bottom. I don't see a lot of downside from this point. As a result, I think a number of oil producers are looking pretty attractive.

This article originally appeared in the The Energy Letter column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive The Energy Letter by email.


Did Your Stomach Drop Along with the Market?

Just the other day, the Dow dropped 450 points – its biggest single-day loss in a year. At the same time, the S&P 500 capped a three-day loss that was its worse since 2011. To be clear, this is a sign of things to come. Sure, the market came back. But how long will it be until it drops again… or worse, crashes? Are you prepared… and is your portfolio?

Here's how to protect yourself.

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