Wednesday, November 26, 2014


Your Big Chance to be Like Buffett

Ever dream of investing like Warren Buffett and calmly making a killing, while others are shouting, "The sky is falling"? The oil-price panic is your big chance. We're adding 4 unjustly punished energy stocks to our portfolio that are positioned to bounce back fast. Profit upsides reach 74%. Want to see the list?

Click here.

Will You Miss Out on the Oil Stock Rebound?

Robert Rapier

Warren Buffett said it best.

"You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy. It's that simple."

Have you've ever said to yourself, "One day I'm going to be like Warren Buffett and calmly make a killing while others are yelling 'the sky is falling'"?

Here's your chance.

In a flash, quality energy stocks have dropped more than they did in 2008—but this time it's a clear-cut panic situation.

It's also a clear-cut buying opportunity: the last time energy stocks bottomed like this, they bounced back 56% in less than 24 months.

So just how panicked are investors over energy stocks?

Very panicked—way, way out of proportion to the circumstances.

Just Look at My Favorite Pick Right Now…

This is one of the world's great companies; it's nearly impossible to find oil and gas in today's harder-to-reach areas without its tools.

I call it the Google of oil search and discovery. It operates in 85 countries, including North America and Latin America. With 25 R&D centers and a unique alliance with Microsoft, this outfit is a leader in developing breakthrough technologies for oil exploration and production.

In the latest quarter, it reported an 8.5% year-over-year revenue boost, along with a 16% increase in earnings per share.

Did any of this save it from the panic?

Nope.

Investors freaked out and rushed to sell. The stock plunged nearly 25% as investors panicked and sold off energy stocks, fearful of rising oil production in the U.S. and weak economic growth internationally.

But my top pick is no ordinary production outfit. You can bet it's going to bounce back in a big way. And we'll be waiting to scoop up the windfall profits.

So what's your projected upside? 30% profits in 18 months or less.

This company is one of four stocks on our "bounce-back list" that have been unfairly beaten down by spooked investors. Those who seize the moment and snap them up before the market comes to its senses will gain substantial windfall profits. I'm forecasting a range of 30% to 74%.

That's an average profit upside of 52% for the entire group.

In other words, your "Warren Buffett" moment is here.

I'll have a lot more to say about these four picks—all of which have special capabilities that make them excellent additions to our bounce-back energy stock portfolio—in just a moment.

But before we get to that, there's one thing you need to remember…

Cheaper Oil Is Not Here to Stay

Today's depressed oil prices won't last long—they're the result of economic conditions and a slew of unnerving headlines.

But event-driven stock declines always pass. Headlines come and go at lightning speed.

Consider the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse and banking crisis, which triggered the Great Recession and sent oil prices plunging. By the spring of 2009, oil had rebounded more than 60%.

That underscores a reality that's not going to change anytime soon. The need for oil won't go away—in fact, it will grow.

You see, despite much hype to the contrary, there is no scalable, economically viable replacement for oil on the horizon. Oil makes up a third of the global energy mix and is the most irreplaceable component.

The future may someday belong to renewables, but fossil fuels—led by oil—still power the world, and oil will still be number one 20 years from now, according to the International Energy Agency.

That's partly thanks to fast-growing emerging nations, which are demanding more oil and gas and don't worry much about the price they have to pay. Oil demand from developing countries will hit 54% of the global total by 2018, up from 49% in 2012.

What's more, the "new oil" coming from shale wells is relatively expensive to produce and requires intensive drilling. If oil prices show signs of weakening, you'll see quick production cuts, steadying prices.

So, despite occasional headline-driven events driving the price of oil up or down, the era of cheap oil is over, likely for decades to come.

But enough about the politics of energy.

Let's get back to those four stocks I mentioned earlier.

Your 4 Best Routes to Big "Bounce-Back" Profits

After weeks of sifting and analyzing, my team and I have narrowed our bounce-back list down to these four companies, which are poised to shoot up quickly as soon as the panic subsides.

On top of the "Google" of oil services I told you about earlier, they include:

  • The Bakken Gem: Phase 2 of the Bakken bonanza is underway. The U.S. government officially doubled projections for oil recoveries. This pick boasts prime Bakken acreage, plus a "secret weapon" that is guiding it to eye-popping production rates. Think you missed the Bakken? You didn't. Not if you make this smart bounce-back trade.

    What's your projected upside? 74% profits in 18 months or less.

  • The Efficiency Experts: This small-cap driller is the cost-efficiency leader and, unusual for any explorer, financed last year's drilling entirely from cash flow. Production has grown at a 55% compound annual rate in the last four years. It's also introducing an advanced fracking design that could pay off with an even bigger production boost. Meantime, it remains an undervalued growth play—ideal for our bounce-back list.

    What's your projected upside? 64% profits in 18 months or less.

  • The Cash Flow Machine: This firm doesn't build or operate rigs, but it does produce the advanced gear that makes them run. This is a highly lucrative business, and this outfit is a free-cash-flow machine with an underappreciated servicing revenue stream and a valuation that's way too low. It's more than worthy of a spot on our bounce-back list.

    What's your projected upside? 40% profits in 18 months or less.

You'll find everything you need to know about investing in these (unfairly) beaten-down stocks in my new special report, "Bounce-Back Energy Stocks—Get Them While They're (Temporarily) Down."

This exclusive report is not for sale at any price, but we're making it available to you—a valued Investing Daily reader—free just for taking a no-risk, no-obligation look at my Energy Strategist advisory.

But I must warn you: time is of the essence. Investors will wake up and realized they overreacted and sold energy stocks low—the opposite of Buffett's investing rule.

They'll start buying again, and our bounce-back bargains will melt away as these stocks rise.

Remember, the average profit upside of all four energy stocks in your complimentary report is a whopping 52%.

I'm pretty sure Warren Buffett himself would smile at that number.

That's why I hope to hear from you today, so I can give you immediate access to this time-sensitive new report free.

Go here to get it now!

Editor's Note: Robert is one of the few energy investing experts who's had his hands on the machinery that makes the sector tick—he's worked on many high-profile oil and gas projects in the North Sea, and he saved ConocoPhillips billions by changing the way they blend gasoline.

Make no mistake: the oil price plunge is just a bump on the road to higher prices—and an unbeatable opportunity to pick up these 4 fast-breaking picks at a bargain. You don't want to look back years from now and realize you missed out.

Get your new free report now.


This Prediction Can't Miss

It's a lock. The current oil-stock panic is a temporary aberration – the result of economic conditions and a slew of unnerving headlines. Panicked investors have driven energy stocks down to ridiculously low prices. The dip won't last long. The world's need for oil just won't go away soon – and solid energy stocks will rebound by 50% or more. To find 4 unfairly punished stocks that will bounce back fast…

go here.

The Surprising Truth About Solar Stocks

Chad Fraser

Reports of solar power's death are greatly exaggerated.

That's the thrust of two recent reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Taken together, they say solar could be the world's top electricity source by 2050, beating out wind, hydro, nuclear---even fossil fuels.

By the middle of the century, the global energy watchdog says solar photovoltaic systems---including household rooftop setups---could be quietly churning out up to 16% of the world's electricity. Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants would chip in another 11%.

Of course, any attempt to predict energy markets 35 years in the future is something less than a crapshoot, and the IEA is careful to point out that these aren't forecasts. Instead, it refers to them as "roadmaps" designed to show the policies and technological leaps needed to hit these targets.

But outlandish or no, these "roadmaps" did focus attention on the fact that the solar business is on the upswing---and investors ought to be paying attention.

Solar Power by the Numbers

The IEA's news comes after the June release of REN21's Renewables 2014 Global Status Report, which contained even sunnier figures. Robert Rapier, chief strategist at our Energy Forecaster service, calls this yearly report card "the most comprehensive report available when it comes to the renewable energy picture."

Here are four things it revealed about the solar photovoltaic industry's growth last year:

  • Globally, installers added more than 39 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV capacity in 2013, bringing the total to 139 GW;

  • U.S. installations rose 41%, spurred by falling prices and new financing arrangements, like those offered by rooftop panel provider SolarCity (NasdaqGS: SCTY), with low-to-no upfront payments;

  • Almost half of all currently operating global solar PV capacity was added in the past two years; 98% has been installed since the beginning of 2004;

  • 2013 marked the first year the world added more solar PV than wind capacity.

A big growth driver is, unsurprisingly, lower costs.

Consider that the price of a rooftop solar PV system has fallen 29% from 2010 to 2013. When you add tax credits, rebates and other incentives into the mix, the total bill can now come in below $10,000.

But that's not the only reason to be bullish on solar.

The industry is poised to benefit from the new U.S./China climate agreement, under which the U.S. aims to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025.

China, for its part, is targeting an emissions peak around 2030 and aims to boost renewables to 20% of its power mix by the same date. That means it will have to deploy 800 to 1,000 GW of renewable power---or about the same as America's total generation capacity today.

Why Investors Closed the Blinds on Solar Stocks

Despite its strong growth, many investors have written off solar---and with the turmoil that's gripped the industry since the Great Recession, it's hard to blame them.

For some, the solar business still starts and ends with the name "Solyndra." As you no doubt recall, that's the California-based startup that famously went bust in 2011 after securing $535 million of government loan guarantees. The situation quickly morphed into a political football that cast a shadow over public support for renewable power.

That was far from the worst of it, though: solar panel makers also faced the double-whammy of falling government subsidies, particularly in Europe, and a glut of cheap Chinese panels that forced some, including Solyndra, into bankruptcy.

The upside? The glut squeezed out weaker players and pushed others---including Energy Strategist recommendations SunEdison Inc. (NYSE: SUNE) and First Solar Inc. (NasdaqGS: FSLR)---into the more profitable business of building and operating utility-scale solar farms.

To be certain, solar investing isn't for the faint of heart, and the sector still faces significant risks, like competition from cheaper fossil fuels (including natural gas from the shale boom) and, of course, ever-shifting political winds.

But if you're looking to add solar exposure to your portfolio, Rapier feels SunEdison and FirstSolar are more than worthy of your attention.

2 Solar Flares for Your Portfolio

On the surface, First Solar and SunEdison look pretty similar. Both are solar project developers with a global reach (though First Solar retains a manufacturing business based on its own technology).

Both are also based in the western U.S. (First Solar in Arizona and SunEdison in Montana) and boast comparable market caps (about $5.0 billion for First Solar and $6.2 billion for SunEdison). Both stocks are also relatively volatile, with SunEdison sporting a beta rating at 4.95 and First Solar clocking in at 3.25. (Stocks with a beta of 1 are as volatile as the market, while those below are less volatile.)

But there are some key differences, as well.

One is each company's approach to so-called yieldcos, a relatively new phenomenon in the renewable power sector. SunEdison spun off its yieldco subsidiary, called TerraForm Power Inc. (NasdaqGS: TERP) in July, while First Solar is still deciding whether to follow suit.

Under the yieldco model, developers sell new projects to their yieldco subsidiary and use the proceeds to build additional plants. The yieldco, in turn, uses the cash flow from these projects to buy new plants (from the parent and other companies) and pay dividends to investors.

A Mighty Wind

On November 17, SunEdison shares soared 29% on news that the company and TerraForm are entering the wind business through their $2.4-billion acquisition of Boston-based First Wind.

SunEdison's cash outlay on the deal will total just $696 million, with another $340 million accounted for via a seller note---essentially an IOU from SunEdison. The company will pay an additional $510 million depending on the performance of the wind portfolio. TerraForm will chip in the remaining $862 million.

The deal increases the generating capacity of the renewable power plants SunEdison can complete in 2015 to about 2.2 GW from 1.7 GW.

"Effectively, the company is engaged in asset arbitrage, buying renewable projects on the cheap-ish and selling them for a lot to investors in the TerraPower yieldco," wrote Rapier in a November 19 Energy Strategist article.

Analysts, for their part, lauded the deal, with Deutsche Bank estimating at least a 50% markup by SunEdison on the First Wind assets dropped down to TerraForm.

"The reception accorded to the deal illustrates the value of yieldcos to their sponsors. It's the reason we made SunEdison a Best Buy in the first place," wrote Rapier.

The bottom line? First Solar, a recommendation of the Energy Forecaster Growth Portfolio, rates a buy under $65. Aggressive Portfolio holding SunEdison is a buy under $25.

4 Terrific Stocks to Buy for 2015

2015 is shaping up to be a great year for solar---but it could be even better for oil stocks.

You read that right: oil stocks.

Many solid companies have been (unfairly) punished in the selloff---but they won't stay down for long. Energy investing expert Robert Rapier has zeroed in on four in perfect position for a huge profit bounce. Your average upside: 52% in 18 months or less.

Don't miss out.

Get the full story here.


4 Bounce-Back Energy Stocks (Get 'Em While They're Down)

They won't be down for long. The wholesale dumping of oil stocks is out of control, forcing share prices lower than in the 2008 crash. If you've ever said to yourself, "One day I'm going to think like Warren Buffett and calmly make a killing while others panic"…this is your big chance. Profit from 4 unfairly punished energy stocks set to rebound by an average of 52%.

Click here.

Debt Is Not Your Enemy

Igor Greenwald

In the aftermath of the financial crisis debt became a four-year word for some, and six years later it still sounds like a dangerous burden to many.

That's understandable, given the dire consequences of all the debt that couldn't be repaid.

Never mind that without debt and borrowers there would be no returns for savers, nor many schools, roads, airports and other projects, public and private, that are typically financed in the bond markets.

The midstream energy sector is one of the few within the corporate economy that has dramatically increased its investment over the last decade, instead of shrinking it in order to return more capital to shareholders.

The capital spending required to accommodate the U.S. shale oil and gas production boom has been huge, and will need to remain so for many years.

U.S. Energy Infrastructure Investment Forecast

141125MLPIIinvestmentforecast

Source: IHS

This has meant that, far from returning capital, the master limited partnerships that dominate the midstream sector have had to raise lots of it from limited partners and bond buyers.

And given debt's fearsome reputation, that's given critics of MLPs an opening to claim that they're using it to disguise their true financial state and overstate their staying power.

Those claims are based on a kernel of truth. It is, in fact, possible to use a debt-fueled acquisition spree to make an unsustainable business model look sustainable for a while. It's also possible to use borrowing and equity issuance to pay a distribution not reflective of business fundamentals, or to finance maintenance spending with debt, mislabeling it as growth capital.

Debt makes all of these fudges feasible, just as it makes feasible the construction of an oil pipeline or natural gas processing plants.

That's whyMLP Profitsclosely follows such leverage metrics as debt-to-EBITDA and changes in debt levels to make sure that our recommendations are not living on borrowed time.

But we also understand that debt is an essential ingredient in this period of rapid midstream growth. MLPs are pursuing lucrative projects backed by fixed-fee, long-term contracts with big energy producers. Their willingness to take on low-cost debt to pull these off can hardly be held against them.

In fact, failing to do so these days often means foregoing the cheapest capital. Let's use the example of Targa Resource Partners (NYSE: NGLS), the fast-growing midstream gatherer and processor.

Last month Targa sold $800 million in unsecured senior five-year notes at a yield of 4.125%, which management proudly notes is one of the lowest yields this year for a callable bond rated below investment grade.

And because interest paid on debt is tax-deductible, Targa's interest payments reduce its limited partners' income taxes in the long run. (In the short run, of course, most MLP distributions are mostly tax-deferred.)

Now let's look at the cost to NGLS to finance a project with equity instead of debt. Its units currently yield 5.4%, and on that basis alone the cost of equity financing is higher by more than a full percentage point, or 30%.

But for every extra cent per unit above current levels paid out to limited partners, NGLS will owe another cent in what's known as incentive distribution rights to its general partner, Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP). That puts its effective cost of equity capital at 10.8%, more than two-and-a-half times higher than the cost of debt. And, unlike interest paid, increased incentive payments to the general partner are not tax deductible.

The bottom line is that limited partners, especially those investing in MLPs that owe incentive distribution rights, should be grateful for every dollar borrowed rather than raised in an equity offering, at least in the current low interest rate environment.

Leverage ratios at some MLPs remain elevated amid heavy spending, while others have already made good progress on ratcheting them down as recently completed projects start to pay off.

In fact, given the low cost of debt, it's impressive that several of our top picks at MLP Profits retain a third or more of their cash flow to reinvest. As a rule, these tend to be partnerships that are growing rapidly.

Low interest rates also help explain why MLPs continue raising distributions even while borrowing money for expansion. Tax-deferred yield has always been a big selling point for such investments, and all the more so now given a shortage of attractive alternatives.

And yet the industry needs to raise more capital than it spreads around right now to keep up with the needs of its customers.

Borrowing the money is not only the most tax-efficient response but often also the most affordable one for the limited partners.

This article originally appeared in the MLP Investing Insider column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive MLP Investing Insider by email.


Freaked-Out Investors Dump the "Google of Energy Stocks"!

Hard to believe, but investors panicked by falling oil prices are dumping one of the world's great companies – the Google of oil search and discovery. This is crazy. But crazy good for us because unlike most investors, we know this stock and others have been driven down to absurdly low prices. You can bet they're about to bounce back in a big, big way – and we'll be waiting to pocket the windfall profits. Curious?

Look here.

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