Tuesday, December 2, 2014


How to Escape Obamanomics… and Retire Well

With half the country seeing the government as a paycheck, Obama is running up the debt at a rate of $31,000 a second. This will have unbearable consequences on every hard-working investor's portfolio until 2023. But perhaps not yours.

Here are 6 little-known escape hatches that could generate up to 5 times MORE cash than the average S&P 500 investor. Many will say it's impossible,

but the proof is here.

Big Data, Big Profits

Thomas Scarlett

Many large enterprises are struggling to capture and interpret information that is spread across various analytic systems, each system handling different types of processing and data. One of the most interesting companies helping corporate America make this transition is Teradata (NYSE: TDC).

Organizations today are looking for ways to scale the breadth and sophistication of their data analytics to respond to the demands of business operations. The challenge is how to best orchestrate a wide variety of file systems, storage techniques, procedural languages and data types into one cohesive and system.

To deliver value from big data, customers should be able to create a system that allows the integration of analytic processes across parallel databases rather than separate servers. And with economic growth still rather sluggish for this phase of a recovery, companies are trying to put in new systems without breaking the bank.

Teradata has unveiled its largest data storage tool yet, the Active Enterprise Data Warehouse 6750 (EDW). This new platform has been designed to meet the needs of the largest and most demanding real-time workloads, with thousands of applications. It also has the ability of allowing unlimited concurrent users to run unlimited queries against 61 petabytes of data.

Teradata Active EDW has the capability to automatically bundle memory as well as solid state drive SSD and traditional disk storage to allow users get memory speed combined with depth of analysis. The tiered memory architecture has been developed based on the data's frequency of use.

Teradata also has a new software product called QueryGrid that it says is the most flexible solution available. "After the user selects an analytic engine and a file system, Teradata software seamlessly orchestrates analytic processing across systems with a single SQL query, without moving the data," said Scott Gnau, president of Teradata Labs. "In addition, Teradata allows for multiple file systems and engines in the same workload."

On May 5, Teradata's board of directors authorized an additional $300 million to be utilized to repurchase Teradata common stock under its open market share repurchase program. Teradata now has a total of approximately $550 million authorized for share repurchases under its share repurchase program.

Teradata Corp. reported revenue of $667million for the quarter that ended September 30, 2014, versus $666 million reported in the third quarter of2013. Revenue in the third quarter increased 1 percent when compared in constant currency.

Gross margin in the third quarter was 52.5 percent, versus 53.8 percent in the third quarter of 2013. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding stock-based compensation expense, gross margin was 53.8 percent, versus 55.0 percent in the third quarter of 2013.

"We continue to experience excellent revenue growth with our Big Data analytics solutions which include Aster, Big Data appliances, Hadoop and related software tools and services," said Mike Koehler, president and chief executive officer, Teradata Corporation. "Data Warehouse new customer wins in the quarter and year-to-date are at near record levels, and we are seeing strong market adoption of our Unified Data Architecture. Our increased investments in Big Data analytics and Integrated Marketing Cloud solutions will help drive further revenue growth longer term."

Teradata and MapR Technologies, Inc., a provider of Apache Hadoop, have announced an expanded partnership that covers technology integration, road map alignment, and a unified go-to-market offering. The two companies are optimizing integration of the MapR Distribution within theTeradata Unified Data Architecture, providing customers more choices when combining Teradata's best-in-class data warehousing with Hadoop, discovery platforms, and NoSQL options to drive analytic innovation.

The agreement also provides for Teradata to resell MapR software, professional services, and customer support and serve as the single point of contact for customers that use both Teradata and MapR solutions. Orchestration capabilities such as Teradata QueryGrid andTeradata Loomwill be directly integrated with MapR software. QueryGrid is the seamless data fabric that both optimizes and simplifies processing across various databases.

"Customers who have invested in both MapR and Teradata solutions have requested integration, so now is the right time to expand our partnership. As customers continue to build out analytic architectures, they want flexibility and choice, and Teradata's Unified Data Architecture is the most sophisticated and open big data ecosystem," said Scott Gnau, president, Teradata Labs.

"Hadoop is a must-have technology, enabling sophisticated data warehouse users with means to leverage even more data," said John Schroeder, chief executive officer and co-founder, MapR Technologies. "As companies move Hadoop into production environments, customers are choosing the MapR Distribution because it brings high performance and reliability to Hadoop -- just like Teradata customers have come to expect from their integrated data warehouse and analytic platforms."

Teradata's price-earnings ratio is just 20 -- quite low for a tech company with such strong growth prospects. The company is a buy up to 50.

Tom Scarlett is an investment analyst with Personal Finance.


Big Announcement Coming Soon

Republicans list Keystone XL Pipeline approval as one of the first bills they'll send to Obama's desk – and when it arrives, it will have Democrats' signatures on it. That will make it difficult for Obama to veto the bill. When he gives the go-ahead (and I predict he will), share prices of a select group of stocks will soar. Want to see the list?

Go here.

Cold Comfort for a Natural Gas Bull

Robert Rapier

Last winter saw the largest and fastest withdrawal of natural gas from storage in U.S. history. We ended the withdrawal season at the lowest natural gas inventory levels in more than a decade. Inventories were about 50% below normal at the end of the winter withdrawal season.

Withdrawal season ends roughly in mid-April and is followed by injection season through mid-November. Injection season is a period of lower natural gas demand used to rebuild supplies depleted over the winter.

My feeling was that low inventories would affect the natural gas markets in the following ways. Year-over-year natural gas prices were likely to be higher than the previous year because supplies were lower. Natural gas producers would need to produce at high rates to replenish the inventories, and since I believed they would be getting better prices for the natural gas, profits would be up for most producers. This, naturally, would cause the share prices of natural gas producers to rise.

But markets can behave irrationally. You can be right on all the details, and still have the market go against you. This is one reason I don't short stocks. I have seen the market cap of a $500 million company that I thought was worth less than $100 million rise above $1 billion before beginning its decline. So your investment thesis may be sound, but you could still lose money.

Going long is different in that I can exercise more patience if I am not leveraged. I believe that a number of drivers (e.g., the phase-out of coal, the beginning of LNG exports) will push natural gas prices higher over the long term. But the short-term natural gas markets are far more weather driven. Over time those weather events will even out, so if I am correct on the long-term thesis I can ride out the short-term moves.

Last winter, natural gas inventories were depleted by the coldest weather we have had in many years. This is one of those short-term weather events that lined up with my long-term thesis on natural gas. Natural gas prices would surely rise.

But short-term weather events can go both directions. A mild summer moderates natural gas demand from utilities because of reduced use of air conditioning. On the other hand, a hot or even a normal summer, combined with the severely depleted inventories, had the potential to cause much higher natural gas prices.

How often do we have a mild summer? Not often in recent years. So it was a pretty good bet that there would be upward pressure on natural gas prices through the summer.

But we did in fact have a mild summer this year. As shown in the graph below, natural gas demand from electric utilities was lower this summer than in the previous two summers (although only modestly below last year's demand).

141125tel1

Meanwhile, natural gas producers did produce at the highest levels in history. Last year's record production was surpassed.


141125tel2

The net result was that natural gas inventories were refilled much faster than normal this year:



141125tel3

Last week saw the first decline of natural gas inventories since spring, so this marks the beginning of withdrawal season. We started this year's withdrawal season only 6.4% below the five-year average for this time of year, and only 5.3% below last year's level. If we have a winter like last winter, we are going into it in slightly worse shape than a year ago. But because of the mild summer, we are in much better shape than we might have been.

So how did all of this impact my short-term natural gas thesis? Natural gas prices were in fact consistently higher than they were a year ago:


141125tel4

Natural gas producers, as shown in the previous graphic, produced at their highest levels ever. So we had higher prices and higher production. This did in fact translate into higher year-over-year profits for most natural gas producers.

But the mild summer and the speed at which inventories were refilled kept the share prices of most of these producers in check. Some major natural gas producers that are also significant oil producers, like Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), had very impressive returns up until the oil price correction that started in July (and both are still up year-to-date). Others, like the Cabot Oil and Gas (NYSE: COG), saw their share price decline even though profits surged.

Conclusions

Ultimately, the long-term thesis on natural gas remains the same: I am bullish. But I am much more neutral on the short-term, because inventories are near normal and I can't predict the weather. Even so, given the same conditions that we saw in the spring, I would make the same short-term bet. Most of the time it should work out better than it did, but this year a mild summer tempered returns.

This article originally appeared in the The Energy Letter column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive The Energy Letter by email.


$6,833 a month by trading this way

It's a trading strategy surging among the over-50 crowd. Why is this new style of investing so popular? It's less risky than buying a stock. Recent actual payouts have been $5,500… $9,970… even $13,100 – just to name a few. Payouts happen every month. It takes just 9 minutes a week. Since April of 2011, a certain group of Boomers has averaged $6,833 a month trading this way. You can, too. Why not take 5 minutes to check it out?

Details here.

Reviewing Your Estate Plan Essentials

You need a complete, up-to-date estate plan now more than ever, regardless of the value of your estate. Estate planning never was all about taxes, though people thought it was back when estate taxes clipped many estates.

Because few estates will face a federal tax burden, we can focus on the real issues of estate planning. Failure to have a plan or to have a quality, updated plan likely will lead to dissipation of much of your lifetime's wealth by forces other than federal taxes. A nonexistent or inadequate plan is an impediment to achieving your plans and goals for the wealth and often leads to family disputes and disharmony.

Every estate has a host of significant issues other than federal taxes that need to be addressed.

Medical care. That's right. Medical care is a vital part of a good estate plan. The plan should define how your medical needs will be addressed in different circumstances.

First, you'll need documents that provide which decisions will be made and who will make them in case you aren't able to. That means you need a medical power of attorney or medical care directive and perhaps a living will. You also should consider if you want documents such as a do-not-resuscitate order. You need to focus on both the terms and scope of the documents and, especially with the power of attorney, selecting the person or people to make decisions. You can find details about these documents in the Estate Watch section of the Archive on the members' web site.

The financial aspect of your medical care also should be covered. Be sure you have adequate insurance or resources to cover most types of medical care.

Do you have or should you buy long-term care insurance? If not, are you planning to qualify for Medicaid for any long-term care needs, or do you plan to meet the costs from your assets and income? Have you looked at policies that combine life insurance or an annuity with long-term care benefits? Neglecting this issue too often leads to a burden on loved ones, an estate being depleted to pay for care, and sometimes the next generation's nest eggs being depleted.

Avoiding disputes. It doesn't matter how much or how little wealth you have. When an estate owner doesn't develop a plan, conflict and chaos often follow. Children, even adult children, can fight over how assets are divided and managed. The presence of a second spouse or other players can make the conflicts worse.

You shouldn't be content with thinking "the kids can work it out." Any estate planner will tell you they often don't. Even when an estate doesn't seem to be worth much, there's a need to clearly state how you want it divided and handled. In most families, there's usually at least one person who'll look for something to fight about with the others if you leave an opening. Almost every estate planner can tell you stories of families spending far more on legal fees than an item or estate was worth.

Probate. You might not be worried about taxes, but the probate process can cost a lot of money and delay settlement of your estate. Probate is the system that ensures your debts are paid, your assets are distributed how you intended, and heirs have clear legal title to assets. Some states have a streamlined and less expensive process, at least for smaller estates, known as the Uniform Probate Code. But a number of states still use the older, expensive, cumbersome process. You need to find out which type of state you live in and what would be involved in probating your estate.

When the state has an unattractive probate process, consider avoiding the probate process and how to do it. You can use a living trust, partnerships, limited liability companies, joint title, and other tools. Each has advantages and disadvantages. Discuss them with an estate planner to select the tools for you.

When you live in or have property in more than one state, the processes of both states must be considered. The bulk of your estate will be governed by the state in which you are resident, and any real estate will be controlled by the state where it's located. To avoid probate in two states, you might want out-of-state real estate owned through a trust or limited liability company instead of in your name.

Beneficiary forms. IRAs, annuities, employer retirement plans, life insurance, and some other assets aren't affected by your will. They are inherited by whoever's named in the beneficiary designation forms. Be sure these forms in both your records and those of the firm sponsoring the asset reflect your current wishes. If you don't do anything else toward estate planning, take this easy step.

Care of others. You might be helping or anticipate having to help a relative or other person. It might be an elderly parent or other relative. It could be a child or grandchild that has needs. If so, you probably want to develop a plan to ensure they have help when it's needed. That might mean buying life insurance or establishing a trust for their benefit.

Asset management. You're probably managing your investments and other assets well. You're following my advice and maybe considering other advice as well. You probably also determined who you want to inherit and benefit from the investment portfolio and other assets next. But who will manage the portfolio? Is your surviving spouse or other member of your family capable? Do they have the knowledge and skills to manage your assets and make them last a long time? Have you even discussed this with them?

If not, you need a plan.

One option is to lift the burden from the loved ones, just as you have for years. Plan to have a money manager invest the assets.

If that's your plan, find a money manager now. Don't expect loved ones who don't know how to manage money to be able to select a good money manager.

You can test drive a manager by giving one or more managers a portion of your portfolio to manage now. That lets you see not only how they perform but how well they communicate and provide customer service. They'll be in place for you to examine, and over time you can let your spouse or other heirs know that you believe the manager is good and that they should continue to use the firm's services when they inherit the portfolio. If it's the wrong manager, you'll find out soon and be able to make another choice.

Succession. When you own businesses, real estate, or complicated assets such as a collection, succession planning is a must. Look for someone in your family who's able and interested in continuing management of the assets. Then, plan the transition in management or ownership. Don't wait. With businesses and complicated assets, it often takes five years of planning for a succession to be successful.

When there's no suitable successor in the family, you might look for one or more associates who can continue management. They might want to buy the business from the estate or be willing to manage it while family members continue ownership. Or you should develop a plan for how the asset will be sold and the proceeds distributed to your loved ones.

You need to develop a succession or sale plan now. Too often, when a plan isn't in place the value of the asset isn't maintained during the transition. The estate doesn't receive the full value the business once had. Sometimes the entire value of the asset dissipates.

You might have other issues to address, but these are the most common non-tax estate planning issues. Some of these you might be able to resolve on your own. But it's best to meet with an experienced estate planner and discuss the goals and ambitions for your wealth, family, and the rest of your life. Then, you can identify the issues and develop a plan.


Would you like fries with that? How to avoid working during retirement

If you want to avoid taking a part-time job during retirement, where you have to deal with cranky customers and a nagging boss 30 years younger than you, it's not enough to simply protect your wealth. You have to grow it.

Fortunately, a new $600 billion market is storming across households all over the country right now. It could pay you generous yields that keep growing for the rest of your retirement!See how you can cash in on this opportunity

right here.

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