Friday, December 12, 2014


Is this for real?

I've found a $5 tech stock that's set to return gains of 2,042% starting tomorrow. I know that may sound hard to believe. But this company has found a way to profit from a battle being waged by high-profile giants like Intel and Cisco for a $10 billion pocket of Internet riches. And best of all, this tiny company will make that money no matter who comes out on top.

Get the lucrative details here – before it's too late.

Feasting on Chicken

Benjamin Shepherd

The holidays are a bad time to be a turkey. The National Turkey Council estimates that more than 200 million turkeys were consumed in the United States last year, with more than half of them eaten on Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter. But if you think the turkeys have a bad time of it, try being a chicken.

Nearly 22 million chickens are consumed each day in the U.S. alone, with more than 50 billion of the birds consumed globally each year. Baked, broiled, stir fried or prepared any other way you can think of, chicken is expected to beat out pork as the most consumed meat in the world by 2020. A major reason for that is cost; according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, chicken costs an average $1.55 per pound while pork will run you about $4.61.

Religion is another, though often less considered, reason why chicken consumption is exploding. By 2030, the world's Muslim population is expected increase by about 35% to 2.2 billion as compared to 1.6 billion in 2010. That's an annual growth rate of 1.5%, while the world's non-Muslim population is expected to grow by just 0.7%, with Muslims accounting for an estimated 26.4% of the global population by the end of the next decade. Why does that matter? Like Judaism, Islam prohibits the consumption of pork.

Chicken or the Egg

There are a number of ways that investors can profit from the huge popularity of chicken, with several companies that process and sell the bird for the table.

Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) and Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL) are both involved in chicken processing, but that is just a small part of their overall businesses. They both also provide a variety of other meats and even prepared and packaged foods, so an investment there encompasses a wide array of factors. Still, revenue growth at Tysons has averaged 5.2% over the past three years while earnings per share growth comes in at 6.4%. Revenue growth at Hormel has averaged 6.6% over the same period with EPS up an annual average of 10.1%. Wall Street analysts expect EPS to grow between 8% and 10% over the next five years.

Jim Fink, the chief investment strategist at our small-cap advisory Roadrunner Stocks, has found a company which is a pure play on growing chicken consumption.

The third-largest chicken producer in the U.S., Sanderson Farms (NSDAQ: SAFM) has gotten a boost from skyrocketing beef and pork prices over the past couple of years even as its feed prices have been falling. It's not often that a company sees favorable demand growth even as its cost of production is falling. That's resulted in the company's operating margin shooting up from just 4% in 2012 to 7.7% last year. It's expected to hit nearly 12% when full-year 2014 results are reported.

With margins expanding so rapidly, Jim expects Sanderson's earnings to hit a new record high this year with EPS forecast to reach $10.76. Amazingly though, while the stock is up by more than 30% so far this year, it's still an attractive value proposition. Despite the fact that the company's earnings are growing more than twice as fast as Tyson Foods, Sanderson Farms is trading at just 9.8 times one-year forward earnings while Tyson is commanding a multiple of 12.4 and the S&P 500 is at 18 times forward earnings.

Jim sees a lot of upside for the company for two reasons. The first is that fact that with exports making up less than 11% of total sales, there's a lot of potential growth there. For instance, China is the second largest producer of poultry and eggs in the world, but it isn't able to keep up with domestic demand so it is actually a net importer of chicken. It bought more than $416 million worth of fowl from the U.S. last year and that number is only expected to grow over the next several years.

Another major upside catalyst that Jim points out is the fact that Sanderson Farms could be a takeover target. Last year a major Chinese pork processer purchased Smithfield Foods for $4.7 billion and Brazilian meat producer JBS tried to buy out Hillshire Brands, though Tyson Foods won out on that deal. Between June 2008 and June 2013, Chinese and Brazilian buyers made more than 91% of all meat industry acquisitions, spending more than $20 billion. With a market cap of just more than $2 billion, Sanderson Farms would be a fairly cheap purchase while providing a significant production bump for any potential bidder.

More Small Cap Bargains

Sanderson Farms isn't the only small-cap bargain Jim has found, covering dozens of both value and growth stocks in his Roadrunner Stocks Advisory. His momentum portfolio has racked up an average total return of 13.6% while his Small Cap Value portfolio is up by nearly 29%, with plenty more gains ahead.


Profit from Plunging Gas Energy Prices

You've probably noticed lately that the pain at the gas pump isn't what it used to be. That's all thanks to prolific amounts of oil unlocked by fracking here in America. It's good news for consumers… but is bad news if you have any money tied up in energy exploration companies. But I'm not here to tell you investing in American energy isn't a good idea. In fact, even with plunging energy prices, it can be a once-in-an-investor's-lifetime profit opportunity – if you know where to look. I've already done the digging for you, and what I found was shocking. I discovered six American energy stocks that will make you money no matter if oil goes to $40 per barrel or $140.

You can get their names here.

Strong Jobs Report Fails to Bolster Market

Jim Pearce

According to conventional wisdom, last week's strong employment report should have alleviated any remaining fears of a "jobless recovery," as the 321,000 new jobs created in November was more than 40% higher than the consensus estimate. Additionally, the quality of new jobs was greater than the typical seasonal retail positions that tend to proliferate at this time of the year. Instead, there was a big increase in jobs in the Professional and Business Services category, suggesting that large corporations are now investing in human capital again instead of just technology and outsourcing.

For the past three years, as the Fed's Quantitative Easing program has driven the stock market to record heights, critics argued America was experiencing a "jobless recovery" that failed to bring down the unemployment that was persistently hovering around 8%. However, the past six months have witnessed a steady decline in the unemployment rate, now at 5.8% for the second straight month. That's still higher than the arbitrary rate of 5% that many economists regard as full employment for a healthy U.S. economy, but below the 6% figure that is now associated with the "new normal" economic paradigm gaining wide acceptance.

But either way you look at it, it is difficult to consider last week's labor report as anything other than very good news unless it is construed by Fed governors as too much good news, and motivates them to push interest rates higher sooner than expected. If they do begin nudging rates higher, investors may wonder if the bond market will remain stable, or will panicky sellers compound the problem by dumping bonds at fire sale prices?

It's that fear of an uncontrollable "domino effect" that appears to be roiling the stock market this week. The lower bond prices fall, the higher their corresponding yields. The higher bond yields rise, the less attractive stock dividends become. And the less attractive stocks become, the more likely shareholders are to dump them in favor of higher yielding fixed-income products such as bank CDs. In other words, under that scenario both stock and bond prices decline until a new equilibrium is discovered.

Further complicating matters is the surprising collapse in oil prices over the past three months, which is bad news for oil companies but good news for just about everyone else in the American economy. Most economists view higher oil prices as acting like a tax, siphoning money away from everyone and delivering it to a very small number of beneficiaries. However, when the reverse occurs and oil prices head down, the savings on fuel consumption tends to get spent across the board, creating a much larger amount of beneficiaries.

The stock market doesn't know what to make of this double dose of supposed good news, dropping more than 3% from its intraday high on Monday to its intraday low on Wednesday before shooting back up on Thursday. From a longer term perspective the stock market is still retaining most of the gain accumulated over the past six months, with the S&P 500 Index still over 2,000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average well above 17,000. But it's the past week's behavior that is troubling -- if stronger employment and declining oil prices aren't good for the U.S. economy, what is?

Potentially, there may be other factors at work that are independent of stock market attractiveness. For example, many publicly traded companies have bought back a lot of stock over the past couple of years, viewing that as a better use of their cash than earning almost nothing in interest by leaving it in the bank. As those buyback programs slowly wind down, one leg of support for the overall market is removed. The recent large uptick in employment may suggest that more capital is now being redirected into labor and away from share repurchases.

Rising investment in employment may also suggest that the incremental profit gains from technology and outsourcing are leveling off, making human capital competitive from an ROI (return on investment) perspective. For a long time the quickest route to improved profitability was to simply fire a bunch of employees and replace them with computer-aided technology to the extent feasible, and then outsource the remainder of the work that can only be done by people to much cheaper labor markets overseas.

That is still the trend, but the rate of growth in that trend may be slowing down to the point that there is greater gain to be had at the margin by investing in home grown labor. In the short run, that may make it tougher for companies to cost-cut their way out of trouble, but in the long run having a broader employment base is better for the overall economy. After all, human beings spend money on food, housing, and transportation. Computers don't.

This article originally appeared in the Mind Over Markets column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Mind Over Markets by email.


Two Surprising Companies That Saved Fracking

Drillers across the nation are facing a critical shortage of a resource they all need. That has them in a frenzy to lock up supplies. So much so that some are paying 29 times market prices to lock it up.

I've found two companies that control vast amounts of this vital resource and are eagerly selling it to frackers. Gains of 1,019% aren't out of the question. But you need to get positioned now.

Here's how to do it.

Medicare Myths and Mistakes

Medicare and medical expenses are among the most misunderstood parts of retirement and retirement spending. Many surveys have documented how ill-informed both financial professionals and individuals are on these topics. It's no wonder that the leading cause of financial difficulties in retirement often is cited as medical expenses that aren't covered by insurance or Medicare.

By now, most of my readers know that Medicare covers only about half the medical expenses of the average beneficiary. You also should know that many covered expenses have a 20% copayment. You owe 20% of the bill, no matter how high the expense.

Now, let's stop looking at the forest and move closer to look at some of the trees. Here are some items that often cost people a lot of money, expenses that easily could have been avoided.

* You're supposed to sign up for Medicare Parts B or C within the seven months that begins three months before your 65th birthday and ends three months after that birthday, and include your birthday month. It doesn't matter whether or not you are beginning Social Security retirement benefits. In most cases if you don't sign up for Medicare during this time, when you do sign up for it you'll pay a penalty of higher premiums for the rest of your life. The same goes for Part D prescription drug coverage.

* There's a no-penalty extension in your Medicare sign up deadline if you are covered by a qualified medical expense plan during your initial enrollment period. Qualified coverage means a group plan through your employer or union (or former employer if you have retirement medical benefits). You also receive the no-penalty extension when you have such coverage through a spouse.

* Once you leave an employer or otherwise lose qualified employer coverage after age 65, you have eight months to sign up for Medicare and avoid late enrollment penalties. Here's another trap. When you retire from or otherwise leave an employer, you're entitled to pay for the employer coverage for another 18 months through COBRA. But be careful. COBRA coverage doesn't extend your special Medicare enrollment period. You have eight months after leaving the employer to sign up for Medicare, not the 18 month COBRA extension period.

and the employer must have 20 or more employees. That means if you work for (or are retired from) an employer with 19 or fewer employees or are self-employed, your medical insurance doesn't qualify for the extension no matter how good the coverage is.

* Some people believe they don't have to sign up for Medicare because they have coverage through an employer group plan. But there's a trap. The law saw if the employer sponsoring the group plan has 20 or fewer employees, Medicare becomes the primary insurer. At that point, the group plan will pay only for care that Medicare doesn't cover. If you haven't signed up for Medicare, you'll be fully responsible for any care that Medicare would have covered, without limit. When the employer has more than 20 employees, the employer coverage is the primary insurer. You still might want to sign up for Medicare, because Medicare will cover any care that meets its coverage rules and isn't covered by Medicare.

* Medicare Part A doesn't have a premium, but Part B does. Many people think Part B doesn't have a premium, because it is deducted automatically from Social Security benefits if you're receiving them and also are enrolled in Medicare. You also can opt to pay for Medicare separately instead of having it deducted from your retirement benefits.

You probably don't want to opt for paying the Part B premium separately. Social Security benefits increase each year only at the Consumer Price Index inflation rate, which in recent years has been low. Part B premiums have been increasing at more than twice the rate of Social Security benefits. But if your Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security, your Part B premium increases no more than the increase in your retirement benefits. The law says that an increase in Part B premiums can't cause a net reduction in Social Security benefits. But that doesn't apply to those who pay their Part B premiums separately. They have to pay the full increase in the Part B premium.

Those who are some years from retirement need to keep the different rates of growth in Social Security benefits and Medicare premiums in mind. With Medicare premiums increasing much faster than Social Security benefits, when you retire the Part B premiums could take a large percentage of your Social Security benefits.

* The higher your income, the higher your Medicare premiums will be. The higher premiums begin for individuals with modified adjusted gross income above $85,000 and for married couples filing jointly with MAGI above $170,000. They also pay higher premiums on Part D prescription drug plans if they have such coverage. The thresholds aren't indexed for inflation, so more people will be subject to the higher premiums simply because of inflation.

The tax return for two years earlier determines your Medicare premiums. For example, 2013 tax returns determine 2015 Medicare premiums. You can appeal for a lower premium if there's been a change in your situation, such as a divorce, unemployment, death of a spouse, or something similar. Social Security receives your tax return information from the IRS and tells you in the fall what your Medicare premiums will be for the following year.

Tax-exempt bond interest is included in MAGI for this purpose. Not included are distributions from health savings accounts and Roth IRAs and 401(k)s. Also not included are proceeds from reverse mortgages, loans from cash value life insurance, and some distributions from annuities in taxable accounts.

Required minimum distributions from IRAs and other qualified retirement plans do count as income for the higher premiums. This means that traditional tax planning strategies that defer taxes into the future are likely to trigger higher Medicare premiums in retirement.

One-time taxable events also can trigger higher Medicare premiums two years later. These can include taxable sales of homes or other appreciated assets and conversions of traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs.

Bottom line: Be sure to consider the Medicare premium surtax in your tax planning.

Medicare is complicated, and the government doesn't do a good job of educating people. You need to learn the details of Medicare and stay up to date if you don't wan to leave money on the table.


Obama's Parting Gift to Investors?

You might not expect a gift from a chastened Obama – but here it comes: The president will approve the Keystone XL Pipeline. The massive GOP midterm victory seals the deal. With a weak economy, Obama will face severe pressure from victorious Republicans, moderate Democrats, and labor unions. Result: Obama will sneak Keystone approval past its opponents. Join us as we get rich from the torrent of Canadian black gold that will boost share prices of a select group of stocks – many of which are NOT oil stocks.

Go here.

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