Only seven times since 1969 have utility stocks turned in a losing fourth quarter, most recently in 2012.
Barring delivery of a lump of coal from Santa, a 45-year trend of solid late-season performance will continue in 2014, with the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Utility Index up 7.7 percent from Sept. 30 through Nov. 25. For the year it's up 22 percent.
Indeed, until mid-November utilities were the best-performing sectors in terms of total return this year, with the S&P 500 Utilities Index up 23.6 percent versus 12.9 percent for the S&P 500 Index. Health care recently rallied to a 24.6 percent total return.
Utilities have continued to perform well for investors despite the perceived threat of rising interest rates, among other external issues.
And third-quarter reporting season was a good one for the sector, with companies noting solid industrial demand growth that reflects the 3.9 percent growth rate for US GDP during the three months ended Sept. 30, 2014.
Meanwhile, the stories for Canada and Australia boil down to their respective top export commodities, oil for the Great White North, iron ore for the Land Down Under.
Crude and the key steelmaking input continue to slide.
The former development should eventually translate into lower prices at the pump and provide a form of stimulus for the global economy, as consumers will have greater disposable income.
For Canadian exploration and production companies, those with low cost structures and the ability to grow output will survive and eventually thrive.
OPEC met on Thursday--Thanksgiving--for one of the most highly anticipated gatherings of the cartel in decades, with expectations for an output cut waning.
Iron ore's trajectory continues to be about large-scale, low-cost producers such as BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO) expanding output and grabbing market share from smaller, higher-cost competitors.
Australia and Canada should benefit--directly and indirectly--from the Peoples Bank of China's decision to cut interest rates to stimulate the Middle Kingdom's economy.
But the most important factor in the global macro picture right now is US economic growth leadership.
That's a positive for US utilities and dividend-paying stocks, it should lead to stronger demand for Canadian exports, and, eventually, it should benefit emerging markets as well as Australia.
That's the backdrop for the November 2014 Utility Forecaster/Canadian Edge/Australian Edge web chat.
Here's an edited transcript of the back and forth.
Note that we won't be chatting in December. I look forward to taking your questions again on Jan. 28, 2015, at 2 pm ET.
Question: What effect will dispersed or local solar generation have on utilities?
Answer: Distributed generation is a long-term story that may or may not represent an existential threat to the traditional utility revenue model.
The Edison Electric Institute published a paper in early 2013 that did describe a potential "death spiral" for traditional utilities, but whether that happens depends on utilities' response.
And now utilities indeed are beginning to incorporate solar into their business plans, by, for example, providing installation services and building the cost into rate base.
Another key is storage. There is no technology yet available that allows for 24-hour solar or wind dependence. Until that happens, it's all theory.
I'd say the threat will evolve in much the same way the Internet evolved: There were a lot of "new economy" companies that boomed based entirely on the potential of their Internet model, but the companies that really thrived were old-school companies with solid histories, solid products/services and solid reputations that were able to maximize efficiencies and develop new ways of meeting customer needs.
Question: Can you comment further on the upcoming OPEC meeting and the overall falling oil prices in general and how that impacts your recommended holdings. Thanks.
Answer: Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Russia have said they'll start quarterly monitoring of oil prices. But it's still an open question whether OPEC will announce a production cut this week.
Brent and WTI futures s were up early today on speculation that a cut will happen but then slid later in the day.
Saudi Arabia's interest may lie with adding pressure on US-based shale producers, who have higher cost structures and will suffer a little more with crude prices at these and lower levels.
Question: Recently Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF) discontinued reinvesting any dividends to prevent the number of outstanding shares from increasing resulting in diluted earnings per share. At the same time they stopped paying dividends monthly and now pay only a cash dividend quarterly. Since that time the stock price has dropped and has become somewhat volatile.
What's your current opinion on the stock?
Answer: Enerplus and other Canadian E&Ps, in addition to the shareholder-unfriendly moves you describe for ERF, have been hurt by the steep slide in crude prices.
Third-quarter results for the company were solid: production was up 18.9 percent to 104,935 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), while funds from operations (FFO) per share were up 6.1 percent to CAD1.04. Operating costs were up 0.9 percent.
And management boosted the low end of its 2014 production guidance.
Switching to a quarterly versus a monthly payout model will save on financing costs, so it is a long-term positive. And paying only cash will eliminate dilution. But I understand your concern: These are just a couple more moves away from the extremely shareholder-friendly income/royalty trust era.
At the same time, I like Enerplus for the long term.
Question: What impact will the recent emissions treaty agreed to by President Obama have on utilities with a large stake in coal generation?
Answer: US utilities are already moving away from coal-fired generation due to the availability of cheap and abundant natural gas.
The treaty made big news. But the reality is business is moving at a faster pace than government, here as well as on most other issues.
And the standards described by the treaty are very long term in nature. So even American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP), the largest coal-fired generator in the US, has time to adjust. And its stock still looks solid, in fact the announcement caused a moderate selloff that looks to me like a buying opportunity; it's now trading below by $57 buy-under target.
Question: Is Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB) still a buy?
Answer: Yes, I like Student Transportation under USD7. The stock has had a solid run this year, and fiscal 2015 Q1 results were strong, with revenue up 21.4 percent and the net loss flat at USD0.11 per share in seasonally weak summer period.
Question: Hi David. The rally surely has been strong in many of the names that I hold. Despite the seasonal trend favoring utilities, do you think the sector is overbought at this time, specifically Southern Company (NYSE: SO), American Electric Power and Dominion Resources Inc (NYSE: D)?
I'd like to invest more in these names but would like for them to come in a bit. Thanks for your opinion.
Answer: Southern Company is trading above my $44 buy-under target, and Dominion Resources is well above $64.
AEP, as I note above, has come back into value territory. It's dipped below $57 this week.
All three are solid companies that have enjoyed a resurgence of industrial demand as the US economy has gained some steam.
Patience is key, as we will absolutely see a selloff that creates long-term buying opportunities. I can't say when, but it will happen.
Question: Should an elderly person with huge capital gains in energy MLPs (and much diminished cost basis) be concerned about being locked into them for life or just be content with the assumption that the good yields will continue "until death do us part"?
Answer: If your MLP holdings are of the midstream energy variety, with assets concentrated in key producing regions in the US such as the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas and the Bakken in the Upper Midwest, generating cash flow and distributions from fee-based transportation and storage services, I think you're well served holding until you can devise your MLPs to your heirs on a tax-advantaged basis.
I think your income will be stable.
Question: With all that has happened with Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE) at its current price it yields over 11 percent. What's your current opinion at its current price?
Answer: I'm not a big fan of Linn Energy. There's just too much uncertainty about its production profile--it's heavily dependent on acquisitions to grow output. And the recent decline in commodity prices puts additional pressure on the company.
Question: David, I realize Asia is currently down, at least for short term.
With an eye perhaps toward the intermediate to longer term, I would appreciate your insights/comments on the prospects of BHP Billiton, New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC, OTC: NHPEF) OZ Minerals Ltd (ASX: OZL, OTC: OZMLF) and Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU, OTC: ILKAF, ADR: ILKAY).
Thank you.
Answer: HP Billiton is getting hammered because of iron ore's decline. But management is sticking to its commitment to a stepped-up dividend growth plan as it scales back CAPEX as the global mining boom slows down.
New Hope has, along with other global coal producers, suffered with the decline the price of coal. Management is diversifying into oil and gas production, with positive operational results that have yet to be acknowledged in the share price.
I like OZ Minerals for it copper exposure. Production is growing, and costs are trending lower.
Iluka Resources has been hit hard by China's slowdown, but for the long term its mineral sands output puts it in a unique position amid global suppliers.
These are all names for investors with higher risk tolerance, due simply to the fact that they're all commodity-sensitive.
The mining boom is over, but I think we'll see a transition into a period that's something far from an outright bust.
Question: What happened to Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)?
Answer: On Nov. 24, 2014, Cardno management cut its fiscal 2015 first-half profit guidance to AUD26 million to AUD31 million from a prior forecast of AUD35 million, noting that the slowdown in resources-related engineering work hasn't been met with an expected increase in infrastructure-related spending.
Question: What's one of the better utilities or, preferably, utility ETFs to add to portfolio now?
Answer: Reaves Utility Income Fund (NYSE: UTG) is a longtime Utility Forecaster favorite.
Reaves Utility is trading at a 3.9 percent discount to net asset value (NAV). The monthly dividend is $0.1375, an annualized rate of $1.65. At current levels the CEF yields 5.2 percent.
Four of its top 10 holdings are also UF Portfolio Holdings, including Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ), NextEra Energy Inc (NYSE: NEE), AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) and Duke Energy Corp (NYSE: DUK).
Other key holdings include DTE Energy Co (NYSE: DTE), which is seeing solid industrial demand growth and has midstream exposure to the Utica Shale, ITC Holdings Corp (NYSE: ITC), a transmission powerhouse that recently raised its dividend by 14 percent, and BCE Inc (TSX: BCE, NYSE: BCE), one of Canada's biggest telecoms.
Reaves Utility is a buy below 33.
Question: With its spin-off of some properties into a REIT what do you think about Windstream Holdings (NYSE: WIN) and its REIT?
Answer: The REIT spinoff is a positive for Windstream, as it will allow the telecom business to shed debt onto the REIT, which will own the communications infrastructure and real-estate assets.
Growth for the telecom business' strategic units is still a concern, and management recently guided to the low end of its negative 2.5 percent to 1 percent 2014 sales growth target.
The dividend will probably hold, but dividend growth is not part of the equation.
Question: What are you current thoughts on Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)?
Answer: I like Telstra for the long term, particularly in the aftermath of management getting back on the dividend-growth track in fiscal 2014.
The company dominates the Australian wireless market, with an unmatched ability to invest in network infrastructure, a la Verizon and AT&T in the US.
Management is also expanding in Asia, where, despite recent weakness, long-term economic prospects are very bright.
I like it up to USD5.50 on the ASX using the symbol TLS and on the US OTC market using the symbol TTRAF. Buy the US OTC-listed American Depositary Receipt, which represents five ASX-listed shares, under USD27.50.
Question: With the US dollar high and Australian currency weak is it a good time to invest in Australia?
Answer: Well, I don't see the Australian dollar falling much further than it already has. There's a lot of long-term support for the currency, chiefly in the form of foreign central bank accumulation of Australian dollar-denominated assets, and the country's long-term economic profile is relatively strong.
The mining slowdown and the collapse of iron ore prices have weighed on the aussie. But I think it represents a pretty compelling entry point at these levels for new money.
Question: What's your recommendation on Kinder Morgan going forward?
Answer: I've added Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE: KMI) to the UF How They Rate coverage universe as of the December 2014 issue, which will be posted at www.UtilityForecaster.com on Saturday morning, Nov. 29.
I rate the "new" Kinder a buy under $42.
The new entity owns an interest in or operates approximately 80,000 miles of pipelines and 180 terminals. It's the largest midstream and third-largest energy company in North America, with an enterprise value of more than $125 billion.
Kinder Morgan forecast a 2015 dividend of $2 per share, a 16 percent increase over the budgeted 2014 dividend target of $1.72 per share. Management expects to grow the dividend by approximately 10 percent each year from 2015 through 2020 while producing excess coverage of over $2 billion.
Based on management's forecast 2015 annual dividend rate of $2 per share the stock is yielding 5 percent.
Question: Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF) has taken a beating. Are you recommending adding to positions?
Answer: Noranda has fallen off a cliff due to management's bearing commentary about the prospects for its zinc facility after the May 2017 expiration of processing agreement with Glencore Canada.
We noted this concern in the November 2014 issue of CE, which went to press before management announced earnings. During the conference call management noted its concerns.
I am not advocating investors add to positions or that investors with new money buy the stock. There's too much uncertainty. We'll have more to say in the December issue.
Question: David, would you care to venture a guess on where the 10 -year bond goes in 2015? Despite many utilities locking in financing largely on a long-term basis, no doubt a rise in rates would cause an emotional reaction in the utility sector.
Answer: True, a rise in rates--or even the threat thereof--will cause an emotional reaction. We saw this in a big way in mid-2013 and again on a smaller scale in mid-2014.
But I think we're still locked into an era of long-term low rates. We'll see an increase from here, but not at the speed or the magnitude of prior rate-hiking cycles, due to many factors, including demographics and a slowing (but perhaps more stable) global economic growth profile.
Question: What sectors in Australia do you prefer?
Answer: In the November 2014 issue of Australian Edge I identified Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY), which announced a significantly stepped-up dividend policy based on the early success of its PNG LNG project, and GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF), a diversified real estate investment trust with high-quality assets in Australia's central business districts, as my "best buys" for new money.
I also like telecom Telstra, which is the Verizon/AT&T of Australia, and Transurban Group (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF), which owns toll roads in high-density areas in both Australia and the US.
Question: What are your thoughts on Rogers Communications Inc (TSX: RCI/B, NYSE: RCI)?
Answer: I prefer BCE Communications in the Canadian telecom space, but Rogers reported solid third-quarter wireless customer growth, and the stock has recovered some ground lost when investors sold off on fear of the Canadian government's attempt to stand up a fourth nationwide wireless carrier.
Still a strong and diversified communications franchise, still a buy under USD44.
Question: Some of us got caught holding Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT). Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel, i.e. a stock rebirth or subject to a takeover/buy attempt? On the downside do you see a bankruptcy filing or a total collapse?
Answer: I hought the best outcome would be a sale of the company. Apparently that's not happening. Getting the company on track will be a long process. I think Atlantic Power has probably done enough--dividend cuts, debt repayments--to stave off bankruptcy. But it's going to be a long turnaround.
Question: Comments on Just Energy Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE), Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE) and Lightstream Resources Ltd (TSX: LTS, OTC: LSTMF)?
Answer: Just Energy is selling assets to generate cash to pay down debt after a rapid expansion period when management moved into non-core functions. I rate the stock a sell.
Penn West is in a tough situation, selling assets in a down market while trying to maintain production at a level sufficient to generate enough cash flow to support the current dividend rate with spot crude prices on the decline.
Third-quarter production was down 26.4 percent, funds from operations were down 23 percent. I rate it a hold.
Lightstream is in a situation much the same as Penn West's: asset sales from a position of weakness, weak commodity prices, dividend pressure. I rate Lighstream a sell.
This article originally appeared in the Utility & Income column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Utility & Income by email.
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