I don't consider myself a predictor or a prognosticator. In fact so-called expert forecasts are statistically indistinguishable from random guesses.
The best answer to questions such as "Where will the S&P 500 be a year from now?" or "Which way will interest rates move?" is "I don't know."
Markets aggregate an incalculable number of inputs, including billions of bits of data and millions of decisions by not-always-rational humans.
At Utility Forecaster, Canadian Edge and Australian Edge we spend the bulk of our time reading earnings reports, reviewing conference call transcripts, keeping up with research from other analysts and checking companies' performance against financial and operating criteria defined by our Safety Rating Systems.
All that being said, here's how I see the lay of the land as we prepare for a new year.
Normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with a rate hike likely by mid-year, and continuation of relatively strong economic growth will support the US dollar versus the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.
"Crude politics" will dominate energy markets. Saudi Arabia seems resolute about maintaining its current production profile.
It could be about protecting market share versus competition from US frackers.
It could also be about Mideast tension, as Sunni Arab oil states face rising the threat of sectarian violence. Maintaining high production levels is a way for OPEC to undermine the Shia regime in Syria, which is being propped up by Iran and Russia.
It's also a way to cut off revenue from oil properties seized by Islamic State terrorists.
The deep dive in oil prices in late 2014 was probably the single most important development for the Canadian economic outlook, and it has implications for the Canadian dollar, stock prices, GDP growth, government finances and the regional outlook.
Sustained low crude prices will be a drag on the Canadian dollar, though the loonie actually led oil to the downside.
Growth in energy-dependent Alberta will likely slow. But a softer Canadian dollar, along with a stronger US economy, is good news for Ontario and its manufacturers, whose export demand should pick up.
Look for growth in non-energy exports to support acceleration of Canadian GDP growth in 2015.
That should support increased investment as demand improves and uncertainty eases. Corporate balance sheets are well positioned to support investment and M&A, with liquidity sufficient to support dividend growth as well.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative Party--in power since 2006--faces a federal election in October 2015. The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, currently lead in public opinion polling.
Mr. Harper--who hopes to be the first Conservative prime minister to win a fourth consecutive mandate since Sir John a Macdonald in 1891--will rely on a record of competent management of the economy in the aftermath of the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession, a balanced budget for fiscal 2016 and tax cuts maintain his electoral advantage.
I say he'll make history.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens recently expressed a preference to maintain the central bank's overnight cash rate at 2.5% rather than cut the main benchmark, favoring consistency over cheaper money as a way of stimulating growth Down Under.
Mr. Stevens had been balancing his desire to support non-resource export sectors as the commodity boom wanes against a red-hot housing market--the RBA doesn't want to risk stoking property prices any more than the current accommodative stance of monetary policy already does.
Recent signs of slowing in the housing sector may give Mr. Stevens room to maneuver in 2015.
The price of iron ore, which accounts for 20% of Australia's export income, has fallen nearly 50% since the beginning of 2014. Weak global demand, including a slowdown in China, and supply gluts have combined to undermine a range of other export commodities, including coal and gold.
The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) recently forecast that economic growth in the Middle Kingdom could slow to 7.1% in 2015 from 7.4% in 2014. According to the PBoC, stronger global demand could boost exports, but not enough to counteract the impact of weakening property investment.
Declining terms of trade--the value of exports against the value of imports--will pressure the RBA to act, probably by mid-2015, to cut the overnight cash rate to 2.25%.
At the same time, China's emerging middle class will continue to support demand for Australia's service sector.
In November the PBoC cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years to jolt slowing growth. Although China's top leaders have stressed the need to adapt to the economy's "new normal"--an increasingly popular official expression for slower but more sustainable growth--more stimulus is likely in 2015.
Declining terms of trade--the value of exports against the value of imports--will pressure the RBA to act, probably by mid-2015, to cut the overnight cash rate to 2.25%.
The US will lead global economic growth in 2015.
The crude oil slump will put pressure on energy midstream master limited partnerships (MLP), but the US production revolution based on exploitation of shale reserves will continue. MLPs with scale and exposure to key production basins will continue to generate strong cash flows.
Telecom stocks have sold off hard in recent weeks amid growing concerns that a wireless pricing war is unsustainable and that rising costs of spectrum will also drive down profitability.
Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) have the scale and the balance-sheet strength to outlast challenges from T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE: TMUS) and Sprint Corp (NYSE: S). They'll be able to extend their spectrum and network advantages, riding reliability to greater market share.
It's likely the price war will continue into 2015, with corresponding pressure on share prices for the Big Two. But over the long term they'll reward patient investors.
And maybe we'll finally see a consolidation move that makes for meaningful price competition, a combination of Sprint and T-Mobile that would also be able to go toe-to-toe with Verizon and AT&T on network-quality, scale and reliability terms.
The US power and utilities industry--having dealt with pressures ranging from rising capital expenditures to low load growth and competition from new market entrants--is well down the road of long-term transformation.
Opportunities for the future are starting to come into focus. Many of the moving pieces around fuel prices, renewables, customer interaction, managing distributed generation, electricity storage, demand response and energy efficiency are beginning to fall into place.
Utilities are taking concrete, financially sound steps to incorporate these elements directly into their business models to seize opportunities for growth, as opposed to ceding this playing field to new entrants.
A few forward-looking utilities are well down this path, including NextEra Energy Inc (NYSE: NEE), Xcel Energy Inc (NYSE: XEL) and NRG Energy Inc (NYSE: NRG), though most have adopted defensive strategies including strengthening company balance sheets through cost reduction and leveraging traditional merger and acquisition synergies while monitoring the playing field and assessing the risks of deploying new technologies and business models.
The regulated piece of the utility business continues to provide a very solid foundation to defend and build on.
In 2015 we'll see agile, forward-looking management teams augment and complement that solid foundation with new and emerging technologies and business models.
This article originally appeared in the Utility & Income column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Utility & Income by email.
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