Monday, December 29, 2014


Where Doctors are Investing in the Age of Obamacare

Every doctor in the United States is now required to implement electronic record-keeping by 2015 – or face stiff penalties. So where do you suppose doctors are investing their money in the age of Obamacare's new technology requirements? How about in these four companies whose growth is guaranteed by law? Perhaps they know this windfall is still in the early stages… with years of growth and profits ahead.

The details are here.

Our Top 4 Picks for the Coming Obamacare Windfall

Have you noticed your doctor spending more time tapping on a laptop or tablet and less time looking at you?

You're not alone. It's happening in doctors' offices across the country as physicians and health care providers switch to electronic health records (EHRs).

They have little choice. If they want to be paid for their services, they must digitally enter a full report of every patient visit. Hospitals and other providers are also included in the sweeping changes.

That leads us to a select group of companies in line for a spectacular government-legislated windfall.

We'll tell you more about four stocks at the very front of that line in just a moment.

But first, it's crucial that you understand why ...

The Ground Is Shifting Under the Health Care Sector

Not all physicians are happy about EHRs. Many complain the technology is stealing time from one-on-one patient care---and some have been forced to join big medical groups to defray the cost of new computer systems.

But comply they must.

Obamacare decrees that doctors and hospitals adopt EHRs---or face substantial penalties for failing to do so.

If your doctor or hospital hasn't installed a certified EHR system by the New Year, their Medicare reimbursements will be cut by 1%.

But that's just the start.

If the provider still fails to comply, reimbursements will be reduced by 2% in 2016, 3% in 2017, 4% in 2018 and so on in perpetuity. Ten years from now, the government could be holding back 10% of a doctor's Medicare income. The same penalties apply to Medicaid.

In addition to punishing health care providers for non-compliance, the feds will reward those who comply with higher Medicare reimbursements. For implementing EHRs, doctors can receive up to $44,000 in Medicare incentive payments and up to $63,750 for Medicaid.

But if you think this is only about medical records, think again.

The fact is, Obamacare is spawning a huge array of record-keeping impacting just about every aspect of U.S. health care.

And that's laying the groundwork for ...

A Once-in-50-Years Profit Opportunity

Now we have to tell you something here: as fellow investors, we urge you to put aside any personal feelings for or against this controversial law.

Instead, regard it with clear-eyed objectivity.

For the sake of your financial future, you must assess Obamacare as a fait accompli. Right now we're advising investors to view it unemotionally as the once-in-a-half-century investing opportunity that it is. The new law represents the largest increase in the number of insured Americans since the creation of Medicare in 1965.

In addition to direct health care providers, it affects pharmaceutical firms, staffing agencies, insurance companies, pharmacy benefit managers, medical device companies and information technology firms.

Here's what the latest numbers say:

  • Health spending is exploding: According to the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, total health care spending will jump from nearly $3 trillion in 2013 to $4.8 trillion by 2021---an increase of about 70%!
  • Rolls of red tape ahead: Administrative costs will reach $315 billion in 2018, up from $160 billion in 2013---a staggering 96.8% increase!

    Just the red tape alone involved in health care now totals 7% of overall costs. The Department of Health and Human Services expects this percentage to hit double digits by the end of the decade.

The bottom line: Virtually nothing can derail the health industry's momentum ... and a select group of stocks are positioned for huge gains.

We consider this one of the greatest investing opportunities of this generation---reminiscent of the years when IBM and Apple computers revolutionized U.S. business and society.

Even better for us as investors, this transformation has just begun---so the profits haven't started to reflect the boom to come.

Which leads us to the four companies we think of collectively as "the Medical Money Machine"...

4 Ways to Ride the Health Care Spending Wave

The investment pros at our Personal Finance service have thoroughly researched this sector and uncovered four dominant stocks that are poised to soar as this historic shift marches ahead.

Together, they give you a big share of the growing profits from four key parts of America's revamped health care system: EHRs, generic drugs, Medicaid services and pharmacy benefit managers.

We reveal the names, ticker symbols and everything else you need to know about these four top secret picks in a new special report. It's called "The Medical Money Machine," and it gives you a complete roadmap to big profits from health care's historic---and government-ordered---bureaucracy expansion.

We're ready to send you your own personal copy right now. It's yours absolutely free just for taking Personal Finance for a no-obligation test run.

These four surprising picks deserve a place in any investor's portfolio ... or you may even want to set them up in a separate "get rich from Obamacare" portfolio.

Either way, the time to buy them is now---before the rapid expansion of America's health care bureaucracy hits full stride.

Go here to get instant access to this eye-opening new report.

Editor's Note: This is one of the most predictable "surprise" windfalls I've seen in my investing career---and this perfectly timed report gives you everything you need to reap the biggest profits.

A subscriber once told me that reading Personal Finance is like putting on a pair of X-ray glasses and seeing opportunities invisible to others. I think that's a perfect analogy for this new special report, which gives you the four best ways to profit from this incredible once-in-50-years opportunity.

Remember: the coming health care windfall is mandated by the U.S. government, so you'll want to make sure you get in line for your share of the profits now.

Don't miss out.

Click here to get your free report and discover these 4 surprising picks now.


The $315 Billion Red-Tape Tsunami

Call it the largest explosion of bureaucracy in world history. The administrative costs of Obamacare alone are estimated to reach $315 billion in 2018, up over 96% from 2013. Where's the money going? I know 4 companies set to profit hugely from this mammoth health sector transformation.

Find them here.

Issues and Ideas for 2015

David Dittman

I don't consider myself a predictor or a prognosticator. In fact so-called expert forecasts are statistically indistinguishable from random guesses.

The best answer to questions such as "Where will the S&P 500 be a year from now?" or "Which way will interest rates move?" is "I don't know."

Markets aggregate an incalculable number of inputs, including billions of bits of data and millions of decisions by not-always-rational humans.

At Utility Forecaster, Canadian Edge and Australian Edge we spend the bulk of our time reading earnings reports, reviewing conference call transcripts, keeping up with research from other analysts and checking companies' performance against financial and operating criteria defined by our Safety Rating Systems.

All that being said, here's how I see the lay of the land as we prepare for a new year.

Normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with a rate hike likely by mid-year, and continuation of relatively strong economic growth will support the US dollar versus the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.

"Crude politics" will dominate energy markets. Saudi Arabia seems resolute about maintaining its current production profile.

It could be about protecting market share versus competition from US frackers.

It could also be about Mideast tension, as Sunni Arab oil states face rising the threat of sectarian violence. Maintaining high production levels is a way for OPEC to undermine the Shia regime in Syria, which is being propped up by Iran and Russia.

It's also a way to cut off revenue from oil properties seized by Islamic State terrorists.

The deep dive in oil prices in late 2014 was probably the single most important development for the Canadian economic outlook, and it has implications for the Canadian dollar, stock prices, GDP growth, government finances and the regional outlook.

Sustained low crude prices will be a drag on the Canadian dollar, though the loonie actually led oil to the downside.

Growth in energy-dependent Alberta will likely slow. But a softer Canadian dollar, along with a stronger US economy, is good news for Ontario and its manufacturers, whose export demand should pick up.

Look for growth in non-energy exports to support acceleration of Canadian GDP growth in 2015.

That should support increased investment as demand improves and uncertainty eases. Corporate balance sheets are well positioned to support investment and M&A, with liquidity sufficient to support dividend growth as well.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative Party--in power since 2006--faces a federal election in October 2015. The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, currently lead in public opinion polling.

Mr. Harper--who hopes to be the first Conservative prime minister to win a fourth consecutive mandate since Sir John a Macdonald in 1891--will rely on a record of competent management of the economy in the aftermath of the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession, a balanced budget for fiscal 2016 and tax cuts maintain his electoral advantage.

I say he'll make history.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens recently expressed a preference to maintain the central bank's overnight cash rate at 2.5% rather than cut the main benchmark, favoring consistency over cheaper money as a way of stimulating growth Down Under.

Mr. Stevens had been balancing his desire to support non-resource export sectors as the commodity boom wanes against a red-hot housing market--the RBA doesn't want to risk stoking property prices any more than the current accommodative stance of monetary policy already does.

Recent signs of slowing in the housing sector may give Mr. Stevens room to maneuver in 2015.

The price of iron ore, which accounts for 20% of Australia's export income, has fallen nearly 50% since the beginning of 2014. Weak global demand, including a slowdown in China, and supply gluts have combined to undermine a range of other export commodities, including coal and gold.

The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) recently forecast that economic growth in the Middle Kingdom could slow to 7.1% in 2015 from 7.4% in 2014. According to the PBoC, stronger global demand could boost exports, but not enough to counteract the impact of weakening property investment.

Declining terms of trade--the value of exports against the value of imports--will pressure the RBA to act, probably by mid-2015, to cut the overnight cash rate to 2.25%.

At the same time, China's emerging middle class will continue to support demand for Australia's service sector.

In November the PBoC cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years to jolt slowing growth. Although China's top leaders have stressed the need to adapt to the economy's "new normal"--an increasingly popular official expression for slower but more sustainable growth--more stimulus is likely in 2015.

Declining terms of trade--the value of exports against the value of imports--will pressure the RBA to act, probably by mid-2015, to cut the overnight cash rate to 2.25%.

The US will lead global economic growth in 2015.

The crude oil slump will put pressure on energy midstream master limited partnerships (MLP), but the US production revolution based on exploitation of shale reserves will continue. MLPs with scale and exposure to key production basins will continue to generate strong cash flows.

Telecom stocks have sold off hard in recent weeks amid growing concerns that a wireless pricing war is unsustainable and that rising costs of spectrum will also drive down profitability.

Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) have the scale and the balance-sheet strength to outlast challenges from T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE: TMUS) and Sprint Corp (NYSE: S). They'll be able to extend their spectrum and network advantages, riding reliability to greater market share.

It's likely the price war will continue into 2015, with corresponding pressure on share prices for the Big Two. But over the long term they'll reward patient investors.

And maybe we'll finally see a consolidation move that makes for meaningful price competition, a combination of Sprint and T-Mobile that would also be able to go toe-to-toe with Verizon and AT&T on network-quality, scale and reliability terms.

The US power and utilities industry--having dealt with pressures ranging from rising capital expenditures to low load growth and competition from new market entrants--is well down the road of long-term transformation.

Opportunities for the future are starting to come into focus. Many of the moving pieces around fuel prices, renewables, customer interaction, managing distributed generation, electricity storage, demand response and energy efficiency are beginning to fall into place.

Utilities are taking concrete, financially sound steps to incorporate these elements directly into their business models to seize opportunities for growth, as opposed to ceding this playing field to new entrants.

A few forward-looking utilities are well down this path, including NextEra Energy Inc (NYSE: NEE), Xcel Energy Inc (NYSE: XEL) and NRG Energy Inc (NYSE: NRG), though most have adopted defensive strategies including strengthening company balance sheets through cost reduction and leveraging traditional merger and acquisition synergies while monitoring the playing field and assessing the risks of deploying new technologies and business models.

The regulated piece of the utility business continues to provide a very solid foundation to defend and build on.

In 2015 we'll see agile, forward-looking management teams augment and complement that solid foundation with new and emerging technologies and business models.

This article originally appeared in the Utility & Income column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Utility & Income by email.


A Market Dominator with 15.4% Growth in the 1st Quarter

Obamacare mandates that all health records go digital by 2015. This unleashes a powerful technology demand that companies are racing to fill. Four companies are leading the pack.

Our stellar pick is hands down the world leader in electronic health records. Clients include doctors, nurses, lab techs and pharmacists. Their software allows for instant access to patient records.

Here's the thing: Revenue in the first quarter jumped 15.4%, and that's just the beginning as Obamacare gains steam. Even if it's repealed, electronic records are here to stay. We have 3 more health powerhouses to share.

Read more here.

New Year's Resolutions for Successful Investing

Jim Pearce

The day after Christmas - December 26th - is affectionately known as "Boxing Day" in many parts of the world. A holiday of sorts, it is named for the gift boxes that employers would give to their employees. Dating back to the Middle Ages, it's generally believed that these gifts were fairly modest and made to the servants and tradesmen that toiled under much wealthier noblemen.

There may have been a time when the traders and analysts that work for Wall Street investment banking firms were once viewed as little more than subjects of their much wealthier overlords, but those days are long gone. In fact, to a large extent their roles have reversed, as top-tier traders and analysts command enormous salaries and are held in higher regard than the brokers who employ them.

Of course, instead of getting modest presents in gift boxes, these titans of Wall Street receive bonus checks in the millions, even during a down year for the stock market. And with all of the major stock market indexes at or near record highs, this year's version of Boxing Day in lower Manhattan (and outlying suburbs of New Jersey and Connecticut) should be a particularly generous one.

But who is really the giver of these extravagant gifts? Is it their employers, feeling charitable and happily divesting themselves of a small fortune very year to keep these valued employees in the fold? I don't think so. Technically the money comes from them, but in reality the firm acts as little more than a pass-through vehicle, keeping track of the fees and commission income these employees generate and then keeping a portion for themselves before passing on the remainder.

In truth, the givers of these gargantuan-sized bonuses are the investors who supply the capital that ultimately ends up being spent on the products and services those Wall Street firms produce. To be clear, that isn't necessarily a bad thing as the vast majority of them are what keep our world-beating economy humming. But is it really necessary?

It isn't. Ensuring your financial well-being should be your top priority, but you need to take control of your financial affairs in order to do that. As you begin working on your list of New Year's resolutions, there are some things you should resolve to do every year as an investor to ensure that you are doing everything possible to accomplish your financial goals. Here are the "big three" in my book:

First, you really need to understand what you are buying. Although this is said many times, as a long-time financial advisor I can personally attest to the fact that the vast majority of investors I met with had very little understanding of what was in their portfolios. Often a client would ask me to review their "stocks", but all I'd see are packaged products like mutual fund and annuities. When I pointed out that they didn't actually own any stocks at all, their typical response was that they were all the same thing in their mind.

Hopefully you already know that there are many significant differences between stocks, mutual funds, annuities, and all other investment products in terms of cost, liquidity, and tax consequences. If you don't, then that is the first thing you should resolve to do in 2015 before making another investment of any sort. There are a lot of good (and unbiased) books on the subject, so take the time to read one over the holidays. It will be well worth it.

Second, you need to have a clearly defined objective in terms of your investment strategy. More often that not, when I asked clients for their investment objective a typical response was, "Well, I'd like to make as much money as I can." Okay, I think we can all agree on that. But how much risk are you willing to take to achieve that return, and how soon will you need that money? Most importantly, how much of that money are you willing to lose if the market performs badly?

If you haven't given those issues much thought, then I'd suggest you spend a lot of time over the next week thinking hard about which of your financial objectives are "non-negotiable", e.g., being able to pay the mortgage, send your kids through college, etc., and which ones are "nice to haves", e.g., buying season tickets to your local NFL team, taking a cruise every year; and then prioritizing your investment strategy accordingly. A certified financial planner would be a good place to go for that conversation if you don't feel capable of mapping it out on your own.

Third, you should have a single, coherent approach to managing your portfolio so that it doesn't end up becoming a mishmash of stuff you read about on the Internet, heard about from a friend, or was pushed on you by a commission-driven salesperson. There's a chance that may work, but if probably won't. It is virtually impossible to accomplish proper portfolio diversification and risk mitigation if each component of your portfolio is selected independently of the others.

Even though these three things may seem obvious, I'd estimate that about three-quarters of the clients I met with could not honestly say that had achieved all three. In fact, less than half of them had even gotten two of them right. I don't say that to be mean, but to make a point: Knowing what to do, and actually doing it, are often two very different things.

So as you uncork the bubbly next week, resolve to accomplish those three objectives in 2015: understand what you own, have a clearly defined investment strategy, and use a coherent approach to managing your entire investment portfolio. If you can do those three things, it should be a very happy new year indeed.

This article originally appeared in the Mind Over Markets column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Mind Over Markets by email.


Generic Profit Generator

Notice how many prescription drugs are generics? Every year, scores of brand-name medications lose their patent protection, opening the door to generics. Over the next three years, patent expiration will result in $79 billion in sales to manufacturers of lower-priced generics. As generics take over more of the prescription drug industry, one aggressive global outfit should post virtually unstoppable gains.

Here's the name.

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