The International Energy Agency cut its oil demand growth forecasts for 2015 on Friday, noting that the steep decline in crude prices has failed to stimulate buying.
The report sent Brent crude, the international benchmark, a new five-year low of $61.35 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, now down more than 10% this week, further below $60 to $57.34.
The steep and continuing declines for the key crude oil benchmarks--Brent and WTI are both down 46% since mid-June--have hammered share prices of exploration and production (E&P) companies around the world.
And companies with hopes of exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) to energy-starved Asian nations are also sweating, as LNG prices are, for the most part, tied to crude.
We have significant exposure in the Utility Forecaster Portfolio to volatility in the energy sector, via producers as well as midstream companies that transport, store and process output.
Super Oil Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) is now down 22% from its July 24, 2014, 52-week high of $134.85.
MDU Resources Group Inc (NYSE: MDU), which recently announced its intention to sell its E&P unit in order to de-risk its overall financial and operating profile, has sunk to $22.03 as of this writing from $35.93 on April 24, 2014.
Canada-based ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF), whose production for the third quarter was 61% natural gas, is down 32% in US dollar terms, including dividends, since mid-June.
Energen Corp (NYSE: EGN), which cut its dividend by 86.7% after it sold Alabama Gas Co, the regulated gas utility the cash flow from which supported the payout, to The Laclede Group (NYSE: LG), has suffered a 36% selloff since June 19.
In addition to energy producers, the commodity rout has had significant implications for energy midstream companies, including CenterPoint Energy Inc (NYSE: CNP), which gets about 35% of its earnings from its stake in Enable Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: ENBL).
CenterPoint is down 12% since mid-November, its recent slide trailing by a week WTI crude's cross below $80 per barrel on Nov. 3.
Enable Midstream is down 24%, matching WTI's decline, despite management's assertion that less than 30% of its gross margin has commodity price exposure. At the same time, sustained low oil prices may reduce growth prospects.
CenterPoint, which we added to the UF Income Portfolio Aggressive Holdings in November 2014, is buoyed by its solid regulated electric and gas utility operations in Arkansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Texas.
Management teams from all of our Income Portfolio MLP holdings recently provided commentary and context during the recently completed Wells Fargo 13th Annual Energy Symposium.
Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) has come back about 10% from its Nov. 26, 2014, 52-week high amid questions about the viability of BG Group Plc's (London: BG/, OTC: BRGXF, ADR: BRGYY) Lake Charles LNG project given the drop in Brent oil prices and rumblings of the cancelation of various LNG projects given less attractive economics.
The bottom line is that Lake Charles remains the most economical of BG's LNG projects. And Energy Transfer management expects the project to proceed as planned.
Energy Transfer is pursuing a potential equity investment in another LNG project. This investment would happen before the IPO of the Lake Charles LNG MLP. According to management, this project is nearly as economic as Lake Charles and would come into service after Lake Charles.
Energy Transfer Partners has some mild exposure within its midstream business but is largely insulated from lower prices. The Lone Star joint venture's cash flows are mostly fee-based, with frac-or-pay or demand-charge contracts on its pipelines.
And its retail distribution business is benefitting in this environment from widening margins.
Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) expects oil prices to recover in response to a supply correction. Regardless of current prices, Enterprise Products believes that crude and natural gas liquids (NGL) production will likely still increase year over year in 2015.
Even under its low-case scenario--a 25% to 35% reduction in oil completions and $65 per barrel WTI pricing--management expects crude oil production to increase at a 3% to 4% compound annual growth rate and NGL production to grow by 5% to 6% annually through 2020.
In light of the weakness in the crude market, the level of shipper support for the MLP's proposed Bakken-to-Cushing crude oil pipeline will likely not be adequate to pursue the project.
As for potential M&A transactions, management recently noted that although valuations may become more attractive with the pullback in crude prices, it will remain disciplined and only focus on strategic deals.
Enterprise Products, which continues to anticipate a strong organic growth backlog, has earmarked $6 billion for CAPEX in 2015 and 2016, primarily tied to previously defined projects.
Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE: KMI), which has completed the deal to consolidate Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP, Kinder Morgan Management LLC and El Paso Pipeline Partners LP, may be the best way to play offense and defense in the midstream space.
Now the third-largest energy company in the US, Kinder Morgan's scale, diversification and track record of growth throughout market cycles make it a solid option for new money during volatile periods such as this.
That's not to mention the current yield of 4.4%, management's forecast of 10% annual dividend growth and the significantly improved cost of capital resulting from the consolidation transaction, which will help it capitalize on M&A opportunities as smaller fry struggle due to commodity price and E&P CAPEX uncertainty.
The stock has held up quite well during the current tumult and at $39.82 as of this writing is trading 6% below its Nov. 26, 2014, 52-week high of $42.32.
Management of Plain All American Pipeline LP (NYSE: PAA), which is down 21% since Sept. 8, expects oil prices to recover to approximately $80 per barrel by the end of 2015.
Although a number of shale plays in the U.S. remain economic even at current oil prices, Plains All American believes producers will reign in CAPEX in 2015--and therefore the pace of production growth--to match spending levels with projected cash flow under a lower commodity price environment.
Management believes a sustained low case scenario for oil would only be applicable if global demand growth further slows and/or if OPEC intentionally attempts to keep the price of oil low in order to hurt U.S. shale producers, which it considers a highly unlikely scenario.
Plains All American noted that even if crude oil prices settled into a new normal of $65 to 75 per barrel, North American crude oil supply would likely still continue to increase, which should support continued growth in the MLP's distribution, albeit at a slower rate than in an $80-plus crude environment.
Management expects supply growth in the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin to remain robust even under current oil prices. While production growth could slow slightly in the Permian, the rate of growth would likely just revert back to levels projected for the play earlier this year by industry consultants.
The selloff presents a compelling opportunity for investors to establish positions in Plains All American Pipeline, the subject of our December 2014 UF Income Spotlight feature as one of top ideas for new money right now.
This article originally appeared in the Utility & Income column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive Utility & Income by email.
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