Thursday, January 29, 2015


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Shire's Energy

Thomas Scarlett

A biopharmaceutical is any medicine extracted from biological sources---such as vaccines and gene therapies---rather than chemically synthesized. One of the most promising companies in this burgeoning field is Ireland's Shire Corp. (NASDAQ: SHPG).

Shire just won an important victory in the U.S. Supreme Court, which granted Shire's petition to review the validity of its patent for its Lialda drug. The granting of this petition by the Supreme Court vacates the decision of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which had gone against Shire and threatened to hamper an important source of its profits.

The case will be remanded back to the Federal Circuit for further consideration under the deferential standard of review announced by the Supreme Court in another recent patent case.

"Shire is pleased with the Supreme Court's recent action and believes that it substantiates Shire's continued confidence in its patent position," the company said in a statement.

Lialdais used to treat ulcerative colitis, proctitis, and proctosigmoiditis.Lialdais also used to prevent the symptoms of ulcerative colitis from recurring. It has done very well in recent years and has a substantial share of its market. And that's just one of the products in Shire's portfolio.

Shire develops and provides healthcare primarily in the areas of behavioral health, gastrointestinal conditions, rare diseases, and regenerative medicine.

The company made a major move when it revealed that it is acquiring Lumena Pharmaceuticals, a San Diego-based biopharmaceutical company with expertise in rare diseases including liver conditions. The acquisition, which will cost $260 million, adds to Shire's rare diseases portfolio and leverages this expertise, and is a smart combination with Shire's already strong market share of gastrointestinal medicines.

The merger created a very attractive opportunity for Shire to develop treatments for significant unmet need in rare liver diseases as well as a treatment for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).

Flemming Ornskov, chief executive of Shire, commented: "Our pipeline and strategic focus on rare diseases is even further strengthened with the acquisition of Lumena Pharmaceuticals, which also complements our strong GI presence. These attractive potential treatments may offer new hope to patients with cholestatic liver disease and further contribute to Shire's future growth. We have the resources, the infrastructure and the operating capacity to invest in these new potential growth drivers which add further value to Shire's innovative pipeline."

Lumena had made substantial progress in recent years in the development of LUM001, a promising remedy in the fight against liver disease. The combination of Shire's rare disease experience, global infrastructure, and commercial expertise with Lumena's research advances have the potential to create a true juggernaut in the biopharmaceutical market.

In addition, there is a good fit with Shire's recent acquisition of Fibrotech, which has brought pipeline programs to address unmet patient need in similar conditions, including renal failure or impairment.

Shire has also been working with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on the development of a new treatment for dry eyes.

The company has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for Lifitegrast as a treatment for the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease in adults in the second quarter of 2015, as it completes the remaining chemistry and manufacturing work. In parallel to preparing for the NDA submission, Shire will be assessing the need for gathering additional clinical data in support of the U.S. and potential international regulatory submissions.

Lifitegrast is an investigational treatment that has been studied in a large clinical development program of more than 1,800 patients. The compound, a small-molecule integrin antagonist, was designed to treat dry eye disease, and is a preservative-free topical eye solution.

With several promising products in the pipeline, Shire's growth prospects appear strong. Its market capitalization has been growing very rapidly and is now at $42 billion; one year ago, it was just $33 billion.

The stock has traded as high as 250 within the last 12 months, but the setback regarding its Lialda patent caused its price to tumble down toward 200. Even though things are now looking better on that front, the stock still has not recovered all the ground it lost. That means there's still time for new investors to get aboard this train.

Tom Scarlett is an investment analyst at Personal Finance and its parent web site Investing Daily.


Another Sign of Trouble

A recent Credit Suisse report found that the ratio of wealth to income has hit a new record. Here's the problem with that: The only other times the ratio came close to the current number were during the Great Depression, 1999 (the year before the dotcom burst), and 2008, which you're probably still trying to recover from. If you haven't taken steps to protect yourself this time, you'd better hurry.

Here's how to do it.

Taking Advantage of Oil Prices

Robert Rapier

In last week's Energy Letter I addressed the drop in the price of oil, arguing that it can't stay as low as it is for too long. The Cliffs Notes version is that over the past five years oil demand has grown by 5.2 million barrels (bbl) per day, but most of the new supply that has been added during that time cost quite a bit more than $50/bbl to produce. (Eighty-four percent of the new supply in the past five years has come from U.S. shale oil.)

So while the current oil price is driven by the panic of traders, supply/demand fundamentals will re-assert themselves before long and push the price back above $50. And the longer we stay below a sustainable price, the more we will ultimately overshoot to the high side.

In response to that column I received a follow-up question. This is the kind of question that comes up often from friends and family -- investors who may not be especially sophisticated. I typically respond by sharing my personal beliefs about market trends, a bit of personal finance basics and some specific advice about energy companies.

Q: In the face of declining oil prices, how should middle-income earners respond? Do you think oil prices will remain low, and if not is there a way to lock in today's prices? I only have a total of $8000, I am inexperienced, and I don't know where to start.

Last week I argued that oil prices will not remain low. There are ways to lock in today's prices, but they aren't really appropriate for novice or relatively inexperienced investors. Further, these strategies can be extremely risky. But there is a lower-risk course of action I would recommend.

Over the long term, I favor three sectors of the market that I believe will outperform the broader market averages. Of course it is important to pick your entry points; these sectors can be volatile on a year-to-year basis. You really want to move money into these sectors while they're down.

The three sectors I favor are technology (think Apple and Google), health care (think aging Baby Boomers and the medicines they will need to maintain a good quality of life), and energy. I can't speak with a high level of expertise on technology and health care, so I personally just devote a portion of my portfolio to mutual funds in those areas that have good track records.

The novice investor may be more comfortable applying that same philosophy to the energy sector: Pick a decent mutual fund and let your money ride. But I think there is a fairly low risk strategy that should serve the novice investor well.

Before discussing specifics, I would first give two general pieces of advice to novice investors. When investing in stocks or mutual funds, only put in money that you think you won't need in the next three or four years. While I believe much of the downside risk in the energy sector is gone, there have been periods where an initial investment would have declined and taken that long to recover. You have to be mentally prepared to let that money ride unless something fundamentally changes with respect to the sector or the broader market.

One example of a fundamental change for energy stocks would be if global demand were to decline, since growth in total energy consumption has been the base case for this industry for quite some time. This would certainly require at the minimum a reconsideration of any investments made with that trend in mind.

The second piece of advice I would offer is to always maximize tax-advantaged accounts. What do I mean by that? Retirement accounts like 401k's and IRAs allow you to not only invest pre-tax dollars, but to compound the gains before paying taxes. This means that governments (state and federal) are chipping in on every contribution by letting you invest money that would have otherwise gone to pay taxes. That means that you could invest $1 and it might only cost you 70 cents (for instance) out of pocket.

An additional benefit of a 401k is that employers often match employee contributions. So, skipping out on a deal like that is just walking away from free money. If I could only give a few words of advice to someone entering the workforce, they would be to maximize the 401k contribution, learn to live without that money and invest in a growth mutual fund.

Now for the specifics on investing. Less experienced investors should proceed cautiously. There are times that I would advise them away from the energy sector in general (like a year ago, when I felt oil prices would fall) and I would always advise them to stay away from small companies, or those with a lot of debt. I would steer them toward larger, more diversified companies that pay decent dividends, and that I think will still be going strong a decade from now.

For the person who asked me this question, I recommended ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) stock. As a disclaimer, I worked for COP for six years, but there were times I would not have recommended its stock as an investment. Over the past five years, however, ConocoPhillips has undergone a major transition that should enable it to fare well even at $50/bbl oil. The company is large enough and globally diversified enough to cope with the downturn in oil prices better than most. The stock is among the few in the energy sector with a positive total return over the last 12 months. It pays a dividend currently yielding 4.5%, and when oil prices begin to climb the shares should enjoy decent price appreciation. There's not as much potential appreciation as in one of the riskier, aggressive oil companies, but also much less downside risk.

There are a number of other companies of the same type that I think would make equally good investments for a long-term buy and hold strategy that enables you to sleep at night. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) are two that come to mind, and there are also numerous offerings among the Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) that offer relatively low downside risk and yields in the 4% to 6% range.

That is the core of the basic strategy that I offer to friends and family when they ask me what to do, so consider it my best free advice for a novice investor. For more detailed or specific investment guidance, we delve much deeper into the topic in The Energy Strategist and MLP Profits. We also offer up more aggressive choices for investors who understand a bit more about risk, and have the tolerance for greater risk in return for potentially greater rewards.

This article originally appeared in the The Energy Letter column. Never miss an issue. Sign up to receive The Energy Letter by email.


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Winning IRA Strategies for 2015

Too many people leave money on the table when managing their IRAs. There are a lot of decisions to make, and the wrong choices can result in higher taxes or even penalties.

That's a shame, since IRAs are among the most valuable assets most people own. Resolve this year to review the IRA strategies discussed here and adopt those that will improve the management and after-tax value of your IRA. You probably won't benefit from each of these strategies, but you should consider them and decide which could benefit you.

Required distributions. The IRS has been lax in enforcing the rules for required minimum distributions after age 70, and people make a lot of mistakes with their RMDs, according to recent IRS studies. So, the IRS is stepping up its enforcement. We can't cover the details of RMDs here, but I have in past, and those discussions are in the members' section of our web site. Review the rules and your options carefully to be sure you are avoiding penalties and minimizing taxes.

Don't forget catch-up contributions. When you're still working and making contributions and are age 50 or older, you can contribute an additional $1,000 to an IRA for 2014 and 2015, and an additional $6,000 to a 401(k) in 2015. In 2015 and 2014, the maximum IRA contribution for those 50 and over is $6,500, instead of $5,500. The limit applies to both traditional and Roth IRAs. You can contribute it all to one type or split it between both types of IRAs. You have until you file your income tax return or 2014 to make a 2014 contribution, or until April 15, 2015, whichever is later.

Consider spousal contributions. Generally IRA contributions can be made only to the extent you have earned income from a job or business. There's an exception for married couples when one spouse has little or no earned income. When they file a joint return, contributions to separate IRAs for each spouse can be made up to the maximum, as long as one spouse has at least that much earned income. That means when each spouse is age 50 or older, they can contribute $6,500 for each spouse for a total of $13,000, even when only one spouse has a paid job.

Review your beneficiaries. Perhaps the most common mistake with IRAs is to name the wrong beneficiaries or fail to keep beneficiary designations up to date. There are some interesting court cases in which ex-spouses and other unexpected beneficiaries inherited IRAs because the beneficiary form wasn't updated.

Another mistake is to name the estate, trust, or another beneficiary that under the law requires the IRA to be distributed quickly, preventing stretching out the IRA and causing early tax bills.

What's in your will doesn't have anything to do with who receives your IRA. Be sure to review your beneficiary forms every year or two and any time there is a change in your family. Discuss with your estate planner the effects of choosing different beneficiaries.

Practice tax diversification. Different types of accounts have different tax rules now, but those rules could change. Tax rates also could change. You shouldn't try to predict these changes or structure your finances based on what is most advantageous to you today.

It's safer over the long term to have different types of accounts so you won't be burned completely in any scenario. Spread your investments among taxable accounts, traditional IRAs and 401(k)s, and Roth IRAs and 401(k)s. You might even want to put some money in an annuity if that's appropriate for you.

Consider a conversion. Every year, consider whether it makes sense to convert all or part of a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA. This is another topic we can't discuss in-depth here but have in the past. Whether conversion is a good idea for you depends on factors such as the expected rate of return, the difference between your current tax rate and future tax rates, the source of the cash to pay the taxes, whether future required minimum distributions would exceed your spending needs, and more.

Keep in mind that a Roth IRA avoids RMDs and helps you avoid stealth taxes and higher Medicare premiums in the future. It also gives you better control over when taxes are paid.

It could be that most years an IRA conversion doesn't make sense for you. Yet, one year you might have an unexpected opportunity to make a conversion at low cost when you have a sharp drop in income or a large offsetting deduction. That's why you should review the decision at least every year. You don't want to miss an opportunity to create a stream of tax-free income.

Consider the back-door Roth. Higher-income people can't contribute to Roth IRAs because the tax law doesn't allow them to. Instead, they can make nondeductible contributions to a traditional IRA, and then convert that to a Roth IRA. There shouldn't be any taxes on the conversions, and they'll have Roth IRAs. This can be done every year. But be careful if you already have a traditional IRA with deductible contributions. Then part of your conversion might be taxed.

Another strategy is to make after-tax contributions to a 401(k) if your plan allows them, and roll them directly to a Roth IRA when you roll over the rest of the 401(k) to a traditional IRA. The IRS recently revised its rules to make clear that this strategy works.

Own the right assets in the right accounts. You pay a price for the tax benefits of the traditional IRA, a price you can think of as a mortgage on the IRA. When money other than nondeductible contributions is withdrawn from the traditional IRA, it is taxed as ordinary income. That means tax-advantaged long-term capital gains and dividends are converted to higher-taxed ordinary income.

You can minimize these negative effects by having each type of account own the right assets for it when possible. My research, which has since been backed by other research, reveals that assets paying ordinary income are best held in IRAs, either a traditional or Roth. These investments include high-yield bonds, real estate investment trusts, and investment grade bonds. Also, when stocks, mutual funds, and other investments are likely to be owned for less than one year and generate short-term capital gains, they are best owned through a traditional or Roth IRA. Investments that generate long-term capital gains, such as stocks and mutual funds held for more than one year, should be owned in taxable accounts, as should investments that earn qualified dividends.

When possible, it is best to own your highest-returning assets in a Roth IRA.

You also might own nontraditional investment assets, such as real estate, small business interests, gold, and master limited partnerships. There could be taxes when these investments are owned by IRAs, and some assets are prohibited to IRAs. Be sure you know the tax rules for investing IRAs before you buy nontraditional assets. You can find details in my report, IRA Investment Guide, available through the Bob's Library tab on the Retirement Watch web site.

Owning assets in the right accounts increases after-tax wealth for you and your family. Of course, you don't want to let the tax law dictate your portfolio allocation. For example, if you don't have enough money in taxable accounts to fully fund your desired stock allocation, buy some of the stocks through an IRA. Asset allocation comes first, and tax strategies second.

Spend accounts in the right order. The order in which you draw down your different accounts affects how long your nest egg lasts, primarily because of taxes. As a general rule, it's best to spend taxable accounts first, traditional IRAs and other tax-deferred accounts next, and Roth IRAs last. Spending in this order can make your wealth last a few years longer.

Consolidate or split? I'm a big advocate of simplifying your finances, and that often means consolidating your finances at one financial institution and in as few accounts as possible. Many people have multiple IRAs, and simplifying means rolling them over into one IRA when practical.

There are exceptions to every rule. Suppose you have multiple heirs and expect an IRA to be a significant legacy for them. You could name all the heirs as joint beneficiaries of one IRA and let them decide what to do with the account after they inherit. That could become messy. An alternative is to split the IRA into different IRAs now and name a different person as the primary beneficiary of each. If the heirs aren't likely to agree on how to manage an IRA, you might want to split the IRA now.

Consider charity. When you're going to leave part of your estate to charity, the most tax efficient way to do that might be to name the charity as a beneficiary of an IRA. When individuals receive distributions from an inherited IRA, they must pay income taxes on the distributions just as the owner would have. The beneficiary receives only the after-tax value of the IRA. But individuals can receive most other types of assets from an estate free of income and capital gains taxes. A charity, on the other hand, doesn't pay taxes on IRA distributions it receives as a beneficiary. The charity receives the full benefit of its share of the IRA. It's more tax efficient to make a charitable bequest through an IRA when you can.


It's like finding money in the street

Many regular Joes are racking up $100,000 trading options. They're not investment geniuses. But they've discovered the little-known option-trading secret that's made Warren Buffett almost $5 billion richer in the past decade. Forbes says, "It's like finding money in the street." Barron's says the strategy is "ignored by most investors." My regular Joes are ecstatic to be collecting $800 to $2,200 per trade! This is no gimmick. It's a sure and steady strategy that produces winning trades 8 out of 10 times. If you're interested,

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